Andrew Wilsher
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Sunday’s NFL Wild Card action gets started with an intriguing battle in the AFC between the #7-seed Denver Broncos and #2-seed Buffalo Bills. The Broncos defied their low expectations coming into the season to earn a solid 10-7 record behind an excellent rookie year from quarterback Bo Nix, but they’ll have their work cut out for them here in the freezing cold as they battle the red-hot Bills behind MVP-elect Josh Allen. With tons on the line, we’ve pieced together our best Broncos vs Bills Same Game Parlay picks at HUGE +1800 odds, with the matchup airing live from 1:00 pm ET on CBS. Let’s dive in, while you can also check out all of our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY Wild Card game this weekend.
Bills -8.5 (-110)
Under 55.5 alternate spread (-335)
Bo Nix over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+135)
Broncos vs Bills Same Game Parlay odds: +1800
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Buffalo Bills -8.5 over Denver Broncos (-110)
There’s no denying that the Broncos have been a great story this season and fans in Denver will no doubt be very excited about many years to come with Bo Nix under center. However, going into the lion’s den in Buffalo against a juggernaut offense is likely to be too much for Denver to handle. While the Broncos had a solid year, they did only beat 2 playoff teams all season (and 1 of those was a Chiefs team resting all of its starters) and lost pivotal games to both the Chargers and Bengals prior to Week 18.
As for the Bills, they’ve got tons of postseason experience by now and quarterback Josh Allen has been excellent all year. Buffalo has been one of the NFL’s best for years now but is yet to turn that potential into a Super Bowl appearance. Given Nix’s inexperience and the fact rookie QBs are 19-37-1 ATS in their first playoff start since 2002, I’m expecting the Bills to make a statement at Denver’s expense and secure a comfortable victory.
Read our full Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills predictions for their NFL Wild Card matchup
Under 55.5 alternate spread (-335)
The next leg of my Broncos vs Bills Same Game Parlay picks is to target the Under at an alternate number. I’ve scaled this up by a fair few points as I can definitely see both offenses having some success, but ultimately the cold and potentially snowy conditions should have an impact to keep the number somewhat respectable. This Broncos offense ranks 22nd in success rate and has mostly relied on methodical drives rather than explosive plays to move the chains. Meanwhile, Buffalo runs the ball at one of the highest rates in the NFL, which means the clock should keep ticking and we see fewer possessions as a result. 15 of Denver’s 17 games this season went below this number, while that was also the case in 13 of Buffalo’s games. I feel good about the same happening again here.
Bo Nix over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+135)
To wrap up our Bills vs Broncos Same Game Parlay picks and really drive up the odds, I’m going with Nix to deliver at least 2 passing touchdowns. We see a mega odds boost with this leg as it technically contradicts both the Bills spread and the Under plays, but hear me out. After a shaky start to the season, Nix has been a touchdown machine. He’s thrown 12 TD passes across his last 4 games and has eclipsed this number in 7 of his last 8. His rapport with Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims is one of the most underrated in the NFL, getting the ball to Sutton at least 5 times in 9 of the last 10 games for 6 scores, while Mims has broken out in a big way since the start of December, finding the end zone 5 times in his last 5 games.
This Bills defense is solid but did allow the 8th-most passing touchdowns in the league this season, and has actually given up at least 2 passing TDs in 4 of their last 5 games. All things considered, I’m willing to roll the dice on this play to give us some juicy +1800 odds on our Bills vs Broncos Same Game Parlay. I also wouldn’t put you off adding a Sutton TD at +3000 or Mims TD at +4500 odds to it as well if you’re feeling particularly daring.
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