Ricky Dimon
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There will be a new sheriff in town at Melbourne Park. Ten-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic is out, and for the first time since 2005 neither Djokovic, Roger Federer, nor Rafael Nadal is in the final. Sunday’s championship match features world #3 Daniil Medvedev and world #4 Jannik Sinner. My 3-star best outright bet on Sinner to win the tournament at +700 is alive and well and I just cashed my 3-star play on the women’s side with Aryna Sabalenka triumphing at +400.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 15 schedule for the season’s first major. I’m on fire with a 12-3 over the last 5 days, so let’s keep the momentum going!
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Daniil Medvedev to win at least one set vs. Jannik Sinner (-190)
My 3-star best outright bet on Sinner before the tournament is alive and well. To be clear, I’m not getting off the bandwagon. I fully expect Sinner to win the match, but at the same time there’s no reason to think it will be easy. Medvedev owns a significant edge in experience; this is his sixth Grand Slam final (third at Melbourne Park) and he is a major champion (beat Djokovic in the 2021 U.S. Open final). Sinner, meanwhile, is playing in his first slam final. As well as the Italian is playing these days, it remains to be seen how he handles the occasion. Finally, Medvedev leads the overall head-to-head series 6-3 despite losing 3 very competitive matches against Sinner this past fall. I also like Medvedev +4.5 games and also Medvedev to win at least two sets at +125.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner Over 37.5 games (-118)
The above play could hit right away. If fatigue does set in for Medvedev – who has played a trio of 5-set matches this fortnight – it won’t be at the start. Moreover, Sinner could come out nervous in his first Grand Slam title match. Don’t be shocked if Medvedev steals the first set. This second bet will involve a longer sweat, but it is also a good play for the exact same reasons. Even though the Russian is a considerable favorite, you cannot discount him on this stage. He has been here plenty of times before and has generally played quite well in his major finals despite his 1-4 record. Of their 3 recent head-to-head meetings, 2 went 3 sets and the other was decided by a pair of tiebreakers. They also squared off at the 2021 year-end championship and that showdown ended 10-8 in a third-set tiebreaker in Medvedev’s favor. I expect another lone one.
Daniil Medvedev -3.5 double-faults vs. Jannik Sinner (-138)
It’s time to head back to the lab and dive into some statistics. Medvedev is the double-fault leader at this event by a country mile, with 43 through six matches. That’s 7.17 per match. Sinner has double-faulted a grand total of 10 times–an average of 1.67. Obviously it’s a bit closer in reality since Medvedev has played a lot more games than Sinner (26 to 19). Still, the 27-year-old’s DF percentage is far higher. It’s much higher in head-to-head meetings, too. In their nine encounters and 23 total sets, Medvedev has doubled 33 times to his opponent’s seven. That’s an average of 1.13 more per set. If they play four sets on Sunday (which would be considered average), Medvedev would be expected to have 4.52 more double-faults. Now, also keep in mind that Sinner is perfectly well-rested whereas Medvedev may be a bit fatigued on the heels of his marathon matches. Sinner should be content to take some MPHs off his serve, get it in, and play long rallies. Medvedev will want to go for more on his serves and get free points–or at least keep them as short as possible. That will naturally lead to more DFs for Medvedev and fewer for Sinner.
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