Sunday’s NFL Divisional Round action starts with an exciting matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. The Niners haven’t lost in 3 months and even with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy under center they are looking like the real deal. As for the Cowboys, there is arguably no stronger roster in the NFL and after last week’s demolition of the Buccaneers, Dallas will believe they can secure the upset and move onto the NFC Championship. Let’s get into our expert’s Cowboys vs 49ers picks, predictions and best bets.
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NFL Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers expert predictions
Behind the likes of Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb and an elite offensive line, there is arguably no better offense in the NFL than the one in Dallas. As a result, this could be the unit that can take down the San Francisco defense. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have one of the most ferocious defenses in the game and there will be a lot of focus on whether Purdy can hold his nerve and perform well enough to see San Francisco through this matchup. This one could go either way, and there may be value in taking Dallas to stay within a field goal.
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Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Cowboys +4, 49ers -4
Total Points Over/Under: 46 points
Money Line Odds: Cowboys +175, 49ers -205
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Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Cowboys and 49ers.
Cowboys vs 49ers point spread pick: Cowboys +4 (-110)
I know many are not going to like fading a team as hot as the 49ers, but this Dallas team is the only team in the NFC that I believe can beat them. When every team in the NFL plays their A game, Dallas is maybe only behind the Bills in terms of dominance in the NFL. No other team in the NFC has the combination of a top 10 level QB like Dak, an explosive weapon out of the backfield with Tony Pollard, an elite #1 WR in CeeDee Lamb, an excellent OL and an elite pass rush. As we saw on MNF, when Dak Prescott gets hot he can slice up any defense.
I love the Niners, don’t get me wrong — but Brock Purdy has had it very easy when it comes to competition down the stretch. Consider that Purdy has only faced one top 12 DVOA defense since he has started and it was the Commanders with multiple starters missing in their secondary. Otherwise, he faced a middling Tampa defense that was also missing starters in the secondary and four other bottom 12 DVOA defenses in SEA 2x, LV and Arizona. Dallas (3rd) is also the only top 10 defense that Purdy will have faced when it comes to pressure rate. Prescott in 2017 and Big Ben in 2005, are the only two QBs in the last 20 years who have started as rookies and were favored in the Divisional round by more than a FG. The Cowboys lost outright to the Packers while the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger won by 3 in OT but did not cover the 9 point spread. As great as Purdy has been, this is uncharted waters we are looking at.
Where the Niners can attack the Cowboys is outside with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. That is not really the strong suit of this offense, as it is more shaded towards freeing guys like TE George Kittle, RB Christian McCaffery and the WRs over the middle of the field. Dallas is 4th best in the NFL in DVOA against TEs. On the other side of the ball, the Dallas offense is clearly the biggest test San Francisco has faced in a long time. In fact, outside of Tua Tagovailoa in Week 13, the 49ers have not faced a single top 16 EPA QB since Patrick Mahomes in week 7. You can get to the Niners through the air and especially down the field, where SF ranks just 24th in DVOA defending the deep ball. This Dallas offense has put up monster numbers against some good defenses, including 40 on the Eagles, 34 on the Jags and 28 against the Packers. In fact, the Cowboys’ performance against the Eagles’ defense was the single best game any offense has posted on Philly this season.
I expect Prescott to use his legs a lot more in this game to give the Niners a look they have rarely seen this season. Name the QBs who run the ball and have faced the Niners defense…. Geno Smith did run for 28 yards in the Wild Card game but that was mainly on scrambles. Marcus Mariota early in the season did rush for 50 yards on 6 attempts, and we could see Dak use his legs on keepers as another dimension.
I think this really is a 3-point game either way and giving me a Dallas squad that will not be intimidated by Purdy and this SF team is something I won’t pass up. Let’s not forget that the Niners were on the ropes against the Raiders and Jarret Stidham and were a bad illegal man down the field call on the Seahawks from trailing late into the 3rd quarter last week. This isn’t a team that’s unbeatable.
Be sure to check out our full Cowboys vs 49ers predictions
Cowboys vs 49ers Over/Under totals pick: Under 46 (-105)
When this number opened at 46.5, it felt like a gift. Comparatively, the SF/SEA total opened at 42.5 and was bet down. The DAL/TB opened at 45.5 and was bet down. Statistically, the Cowboys have the 8th-best pass defense and the Niners have the 2nd-best run defense. They are both top 5 in points allowed and they are the top 2 teams in turnover differential. Oddmakers saw 5 of the 6 Wild Card games go over the total and it would have been 6 for 6 if Dallas kicker Brett Maher could have made an extra point or 2. It feels like there is an adjustment for all the points scored last week being reflected in the totals this weekend. My number has this total at 44 and there is already a sharp discrepancy between the tickets and the money with 45% of the bets on the under but 89% of the money. That’s a key tell.
San Francisco rookie quarterback Brock Purdy has been fantastic to date. He also hasn’t faced a defense yet the caliber of Dallas. I’m not say Purdy will play poorly, but success in this game may just look a little different for him. Dak Prescott avoided the turnovers against Tampa Bay and that will be the biggest key to them scoring points. The Cowboys can be run on and that will be what 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will try to exploit. The Cowboys will need to have some measure of success in the run game if they hope to keep this close. Finally, Bill Vinovich is the referee for this game. He’s nearly 60% to the under for his career averaging 36.5 points per game. Vinovich’s crew calls the fewest roughing the passer and defensive holding penalties per game and the 2nd-fewest pass interference penalties. With a shaky kicker on one side of this, that may bring some more variance into play here — but a missed kick feels like a higher probability than normal. Despite this still being under the key number of 47, I’ll take the under.
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Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers expert predictions
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