Andrew Ortenberg
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We’re officially approaching the home stretch of the 2023 NFL regular season. Week 16 is underway, and the clear highlight of the Sunday slate is this showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins. It’s a battle between two 10-4 teams that has huge implications for both sides. There’s only one way to properly celebrate this heavyweight clash, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 16 picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Cowboys vs Dolphins SGP.
Dallas Cowboys alternate spread -6.5 (+255)
Dak Prescott to record 325+ passing yards (+320)
Parlay odds: +1238
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 12/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Dallas Cowboys alternate spread -6.5 (+255)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Cowboys on an alt spread. Now is the time to buy low on Dallas following their disappointing loss to the Bills last week. That game was played in cold weather and the Cowboys had a flu bug going around their locker room. I’m not putting too much stock into it, and Buffalo is just red hot at the moment.
Right before that game, Dallas had rattled off five straight wins. And five of their past six wins have come by 20+ points, so I think they make a lot of sense as a team to target on an alt spread. Their ceiling is as high as any team in the league’s, and they’ve scored at least 33 points in each of their past six victories.
It looks like Tyreek Hill is going to return for the Dolphins here, but he likely won’t be 100 percent coming off his ankle injury. Miami has a lengthy injury report with a bunch of guys banged up, and I haven’t been too impressed with them lately. They bounced back with a win over the lowly Jets last week, but the week before they lost to the Titans and Will Levis as huge favorites.
And just look at all the Dolphins’ 10 wins this season. Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, Giants, Panthers, Patriots again, Raiders, Jets, Commanders and Jets again. It’s pretty much a list of all the worst teams in the league, plus the Broncos back at a time when they were really struggling. Miami doesn’t have any signature wins, and they’ve failed all of their tests against teams of Dallas’ caliber.
Dak Prescott to record 325+ passing yards (+320)
We just need one big game from Prescott to cash this same game parlay, and like I just broke down in the point spread writeup, Dallas has arguably the highest ceiling of any team in the league. In each of their past six wins they’ve scored 33+ points, so I think there’s a very good chance that if they’re covering the -6.5 that Prescott had a huge day.
Prescott struggled last week in Buffalo, but he’s got a much easier matchup here in a much less hostile environment. And just about a month ago, he had a four-game stretch where he threw for 330+ yards three times. This game projects as a potential shootout, and it has easily the highest total of any game on the Week 16 slate.
The Dolphins have some key guys banged up on defense, including Jevon Holland and Xavien Howard in the secondary. And just two weeks ago, Miami gave up 327 yards to Will Levis, who hasn’t gone over 262 in any of his other 7 NFL starts. The last five quarterbacks the Dolphins have faced have been Zach Wilson, Levis, Sam Howell, Tim Boyle and Aidan O’Connell. Needless to say, this is a big step up in competition.
