Andrew Ortenberg
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We’re finally here. Soak it in folks, it’s the first full Sunday of football of the NFL season. Kansas City and Baltimore produced a thriller in the opening Thursday night game, and hopefully we get some more photo finishes on Sunday.
One of the best matchups of the day is this cross-conference showdown between two playoff teams from last year as the Dallas Cowboys take on the Cleveland Browns. Dak Prescott vs Deshaun Watson. Both quarterbacks have a lot to prove, as Prescott is entering a contract year and set to become a free agent and Watson is coming off a disappointing and injury-plagued campaign.
There’s only one way to properly celebrate this heavyweight matchup, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay. Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL picks on sides and totals.
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 alt spread (+255)
Jake Ferguson 5+ receptions (+108)
Jake Ferguson 60+ receiving yards (+250)
Parlay odds: +1026
We have a 3-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 alt spread (+255)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Cowboys on an alt spread. And this play is more a fade of the Browns than it is an endorsement of the Cowboys. I’m not optimistic at all about Cleveland, as Deshaun Watson has shown no indications of being the player he was in Houston during his first couple of years in the AFC North. In fact, Watson has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league when he’s taken the field under Kevin Stefanski.
It’s certainly not encouraging that the Browns’ offense looked infinitely better once Joe Flacco came in cold off the bench last year at the age of 38. Watson has looked like a shell of his former self, and I don’t think he can count on the ground game to support him here. Nick Chubb was recently placed on the PUP list, meaning the star running back will miss at least the first four weeks of this season.
You can criticize Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy as much as you want for their playoff failures, but you can’t deny that the Cowboys have been 1 of the best regular season teams in the league the past few years. They have gone 12-5 in each of the last 3 seasons, and they have an incredibly high ceiling which is why I think they make a lot of sense as an alt spread team.
In 10 of their 12 wins last season they scored at least 30 points, so if they are winning this game then I like their chances of winning by 7+. 9 of those wins came by 20 or more points, which is pretty ridiculous in a league known for its parity. Prescott doesn’t get the respect he deserves, and he is coming off a year where he completed 69.5 percent of his passes while throwing 36 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. Which brings us to the next legs of our Cowboys vs Browns SGP….
Jake Ferguson 5+ receptions (+108)
Jake Ferguson 60+ receiving yards (+250)
All we need to cash this Same Game Parlay is one big game from Ferguson and the Cowboys’ passing attack. Ferguson is the under the radar player that I’m highest on entering this season, and it has a lot to do with his age and how he closed last year. The Wisconsin product was only 24 last season, and young tight ends don’t usually produce all that much.
But the former fourth-round pick caught 71 balls last year, and he finished on a tear. He wrapped up the regular season with at least 4 catches in 6 straight games, getting to at least 69 yards in 3 of those. And then in Dallas’ lone playoff game he erupted for 10 catches on 12 targets and 92 yards.
Prescott’s trust in him grew as the season went on, and I think he’s poised for a breakout year in an offense that throws the ball a ton. The Cowboys were already pass-heavy last year, and then they let Tony Pollard walk this offseason and now have a lot of uncertainty at running back.
It was also only 10 days ago that CeeDee Lamb ended his summer-long holdout after getting a new contract, so he might not see his usual level of volume and Ferguson may get a few more looks as a result.
