Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
We’re officially approaching the home stretch of the 2023 NFL regular season. Week 15 is upon us, and the clear highlight of the Sunday slate is this showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills. These are two of the best teams in the league with big implications for each side. There’s only one way to properly celebrate this heavyweight clash, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 15 picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Broncos vs Lions SGP.
Buffalo Bills alternate spread -6.5 (+190)
Josh Allen to record 325+ passing yards (+430)
Parlay odds: +1527
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 15/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Buffalo Bills alternate spread -6.5 (+190)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Bills on an alt spread. Buffalo is clearly one of the best teams in the league despite their unimpressive 7-6 record, and all six of their losses have come by six points or fewer. If they manage to get into the playoffs they’ll be one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and there’s a reason they’re favored here. The Bills showed last week in a big road win over the Chiefs that they’ve still got it, and now they’ll be back in front of their home crowd for another huge game.
While I’m bullish on the Bills, I’m not sold on all the hype surrounding the Cowboys. Dallas has been fun to watch recently, but let’s examine their five-game winning streak a little closer. They just beat an Eagles team that is suddenly struggling, and before that it was the Seahawks, Commanders, Panthers and Giants. They’ve mostly been beating up on very weak defenses, and this is going to be a much tougher test here.
And Dallas just plays much worse on the road in general. The Cowboys are just 2-3 in their last five on the road, and those two wins were against the Chargers and Panthers. Neither of those games were actually in hostile environments. Their last two tests on the road were against the Eagles and 49ers, and they lost to Philly while getting blown out 42-10 by San Francisco. And in their road game before that, they lost by 12 to Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals as massive favorites in one of the biggest upsets of the season.
Josh Allen to record 325+ passing yards (+430)
All we need to cash this same game parlay is one excellent game from Allen, and I’ll take that at better than 15/1 any day of the week. Allen is as transcendent a player as ever, and he has one of the highest ceilings in the league. I’m not scared of this Dallas secondary, especially with Trevon Diggs done for the season with a torn ACL. Cornerback DaRon Bland has obviously made some splash plays, but the Cowboys’ pass defense has proved vulnerable against elite passing games.
Just two weeks ago they got absolutely torched by the Seahawks as Geno Smith had 334 yards and DK Metcalf went off for 6/134/3. Outside of that game against Smith where they got embarrassed, the other four quarterbacks the Cowboys have faced most recently are a banged up Jalen Hurts, Sam Howell, Bryce Young and Tommy DeVito. Needless to say, this is a big step up in competition.
Allen has thrown for at least 320 yards in four of his last 10 games, so I think getting +430 in this spot has some standalone value as well. Especially in a game that has the second highest total of any Week 15 matchup at 49.5.
