Best Bet – Cowboys to make the playoffs (-115)
Worst Bet – Cowboys to win Super Bowl (+2200)
Dallas Cowboys fans finally got what they wanted last season with the team winning the division and making the playoffs but this season the expectations are now higher, they expect a Super Bowl. Jason Garrett is back as the coach but only with one year left on his contract and it feels like if this team doesn’t have success in the playoffs he could be gone.
The one place they did make a big change is at offensive coordinator. Out is Scott Lineham and in is Kellen Moore, a former Cowboys quarterback. If the team wants to take that next step in the playoffs it’s going to come down to if Dak Prescott can take another step forward.
Prescott and Amari Cooper were on the same page last year, and the expectation is that they will be even better after having a full offseason together. Tight end Jason Witten decided to leave Monday Night Football to come back and play but expecting much out of him on the field might be a stretch. Even if he can’t perform on the field he is a good locker room leader and someone who has been missed.
One thing hanging over the Cowboys is Ezekiel Elliott his contract situation. He has been holding out and if he misses games this season that is going to completely change the dynamic of the team. This preview is being written assuming that Elliott will be with the team when they kick off the regular season against the New York Giants.
Cowboys Win Total: O/U 9.0 Wins
Last season the Cowboys finished with ten wins and six losses in the regular season and it appears that oddsmakers are predicting right around the same thing this season for “America’s Team.” The one difference this season is the Cowboys will be playing a first place schedule, something they didn’t do last year, and it could make a difference. They do have to play the New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots on the road but they did get some breaks getting the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Rams at home.
One thing I think will really help this team is that they get to play the Redskins and Giants twice. They are division games so they will be tough, but the expectation has to be that they can go 4-0 in that stretch which means they only need to find six wins on the rest of the schedule to get over the hump.
Worst case scenario is that this team finishes with nine wins and it’s a push. The Cowboys will go over this number and you will have extra cash in your pocket with this future bet.
Odds To Make The Playoffs: Yes -115, No -115
Vegas sees about a 50/50 chance that they make the playoffs but I see it a bit different and it’s actually my strongest play on the board. Last year it only took nine wins to make the playoffs in the NFC, so even if they just hit that nine-win mark and the over/under is a push, making the playoffs will still be a win.
Prescott has been getting better and better every year and I expect another step forward this year. Who knows what seed they will be and even if they sneak in as a wild card, it doesn’t matter.
All they have to do is make the playoffs for this bet to cash and that is exactly what they will do. Back the Cowboys to make the playoffs.
Odds to win the NFC East +140
Year in and year out the NFC East is ultra-competitive and that is something I expect out of the conference again this year. The last time the same team won the NFC East in back to back years was in 2004 and just based on that I don’t have much trust in the Cowboys to win the East.
I think it comes down to the Eagles and the Cowboys for who will come out ahead and it might all come down to the head to head matchups. If you want to bet the Cowboys to win the NFC East I don’t blame you, but I just don’t think there is enough value to put my money on it. Look for someone else besides the Cowboys to come out and win the East.
Odds to win NFC Championship +1100
The Cowboys currently sit with the sixth-best odds to win the NFC sitting behind the Rams, Saints, Bears, Eagles, and the Packers. +1100 is probably a fair price for their chances, but I just don’t see how they take that big of a leap this year.
When it comes to the playoffs a lot comes down to how well a quarterback can play and even though I think Prescott will take another step forward, I think when the lights shine the brightest, he is going to struggle to lead the team to victory.
If you want to bet on the Cowboys to win the NFC I would take a small flyer, but this isn’t a team that I am going to have on my card. Don’t back the Cowboys to win the NFC Championship game.
Odds to win Super Bowl +2200
My feelings on this Super Bowl bet are very similar to the NFC Championship one. They have a good team that is going to look really good during the regular season but once the bright lights start to shine, they are going to fold under the pressure. Above I said it might be worth putting a little bit of money on the Cowboys to win the NFC because anything could happen, but I wouldn’t suggest doing that on the Super Bowl.
If somehow the Cowboys make it here, Prescott is going to really choke. Stay far away from putting any money on them to win the Super Bowl.
