Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got some nice NBA, NHL, and college hoops action on Tuesday. Yesterday’s big public side was the Heat over the Thunder, and Miami delivered with a 14-point win. Will recreational bettors be so lucky again today? Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books.
NBA: Brooklyn Nets -7 vs. Sacramento Kings
The Nets are starting to become a staple of this column, and it’s not too surprising that the public can’t resist Brooklyn’s new Big 3 with all their star-power. That being said they’re without Kevin Durant right now, but that clearly isn’t enough to scare off bettors. They’re the heaviest NBA side of the day, with 78 percent of the bets and 88 percent of the money coming in on Brooklyn -7 over Sacramento.
The Nets are coming off a win over the Clippers that was nationally televised, so that’s fresh in everybody’s minds. The Kings have lost seven games in a row, with each of those losses coming by at least eight points, so we’re lining up to fade them as well, which you can see in our full-game preview.
NBA: Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets over 230.5
There’s an NBA total that is seeing even crazier splits. Bettors are absolutely pounding the over in this Blazers/Nuggets game with 84 percent of the bets and a whopping 95 percent of the money coming in on the over 230.5. It’s a nationally televised game between two teams with some star-power, so this isn’t too surprising.
Portland is giving up the fourth-most points in the NBA this season, and their defense could be exhausted as this is the second game of a back to back in the altitude of Denver. For those reasons and more, we’re rolling with the over here too.
NHL: Edmonton Oilers (-130) @ Vancouver Canucks
Looking at the hockey board now, the public is gravitating toward Edmonton on Tuesday. The Oilers have the advantage of having the league’s best player, and Connor McDavid is absolutely on fire right now, so the public is riding all-out. 84 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the money are on the Oilers at -130 in this spot.
Beyond the top line stuff, there’s a lot in this matchup that favors Edmonton. For instance, the Canucks are the most penalized team in the NHL, and now they have to face one of the league’s top power-plays. We like Edmonton as well.
CBB: Oklahoma Sooners @ Kansas State Wildcats over 130.5
Pivoting to college basketball now. Of the major games, the bet that has attracted the highest percentage of money is the over 130.5 in Oklahoma @ Kansas State. 91 percent of the bets and 93 percent of the money are on the over here. It’s interesting to see, because it’s not like either of these teams are particularly high-flying.
Both teams play at slow paces, and Kansas State ranks 313th nationally in tempo. At the end of the day, we don’t think the Wildcats have the firepower to keep up here, and they don’t have a single scorer averaging more than 13 points per game. We’re fading the public on this one.
CBB: Illinois Fighting Illini -7 @ Michigan State Spartans
There’s a big public side brewing in the Big Ten, as bettors are piling on to fade the Spartans. 84 percent of the bets and 87 percent of the money are on Illinois minus the points in this spot. Illinois of course is one of the best teams in the country while Michigan State is wrapping up an incredibly disappointing year.
The Spartans have some really embarrassing losses on their resume, including a recent 30-point drubbing at the hands of Iowa and a game where they only scored 37 points against Rutgers, so it’s no wonder everybody is looking to bet against them. Illinois has won seven games in a row, so we’re going to lay the points here as well.
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