Ricky Dimon
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It is a busy Thursday in sports, with the NBA, NHL, and college basketball all having plenty to offer. Heck, we even have another PGA Tour tournament and tennis is still underway at the Australian Open. Let’s take a look at where the betting money is going so far.
NBA: Milwaukee Bucks ML vs. Toronto Raptors
Per Draft Kings, a whopping 81 percent of the money and 74 percent of the bets are coming in on Milwaukee to win straight up at -265. Bettors aren’t even scared by the -6.5 spread; when it comes to ATS money, 67 percent of the money and 60 percent of the bets are backing the Bucks.
We are on Toronto +6.5 in this one. As such, it stands to reason that we don’t see a whole lot of value on the Milwaukee money line at -265. Kyle Lowry is expected to play and Fred VanVleet has been outstanding of late. This may be one in which you don’t want to put all of your faith in the public.
NBA: Kyrie Irving Over 26.5 points
Most of the action is coming in on the Los Angeles Lakers in their showdown against the Brooklyn Nets. With Kevin Durant missing for Brooklyn, bettors think Los Angeles can prevail even if Kyrie Irving has a big game. Irving over 26.5 points at -121 is the second-most popular NBA prop bet of the day, trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo to not have a triple-double (which, at -335, pays out much less). Punters also like Irving to make more than 2.5 three-pointers (the fourth-most popular NBA prop).
NHL: Washington Capitals -1.5 vs. Buffalo Sabres
The public is all over this Washington vs. Buffalo contest. It’s safe to say the sportsbooks will be rooting for the Sabres, because 93 percent of the money and 76 percent of the bets are behind the Capitals’ puck line. Punters like the money line at -155 even more. In that department, a whopping 95 percent of the money and 91 percent of the bets are coming in on Alex Ovechkin and company. The over is also the popular play here, drawing 80 percent of the money.
We also like the Capitals and agree that the puck line has even more value that they money line. Buffalo is on a three-game losing streak and is in last place in its division. The Sabres’ top lines just aren’t producing enough to keep up with Washington.
NCAAB: Michigan Wolverines -9 vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Not even -455 juice is scaring bettors away from the Michigan money line. Almost all of the wagers (96 percent of the money and 97 percent of the bets) are backing the Wolverines straight up. Of course, the payout is much better if you are willing to give Rutgers nine points. And many people are; 83 percent of the handle and 76 percent of the bets are coming in on UM ATS.
Michigan ATS is one of our favorite plays of the day, as well. Since Rutgers entered the Big Ten, the Wolverines have won all eight head-to-head matchups and covered six. Currently one of the hottest teams in the nation, UM is 8-1 ATS in its last nine overall.
NCAAB: Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. St. Mary’s Gaels Over 141.5
Hammering the over on Gonzaga games is one of bettors’ favorite pastimes. They are doing so again on Thursday night—and in a big way. Only nine percent of the money and 16 percent of the bets are backing the under. For those counting, that means 91 percent of the money and 84 percent of the bets are siding with the over.
We certainly aren’t arguing with the public here. Gonzaga guards Joel Ayayi (11.3 ppg) and Jalen Suggs (14.2 ppg) are a matchup problem for St. Mary’s and they combined for 13-of-21 shooting in the first meeting between the two teams.
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