Andrew Ortenberg
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Playoff baseball is here, and we also have NFL Week 5 and a full college football slate to look forward to. There are a lot of crucial contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the ‘books, with the Rays leading the way on Friday.
Don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for all of college football’s biggest games this weekend!
MLB: Rays -1.5 vs Red Sox
The Rays picked up a big win in Game 1 of their ALDS series against the Red Sox, and bettors are going right back to the well for Game 2. 62 percent of the bets and 87 percent of the public money are on Tampa Bay -1.5 here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us. Additionally, 56 percent of the bets and 72 percent of the handle are on their money line at -135. The split in those percentages is very interesting.
The bets themselves aren’t too lopsided, but the money is. That means the large volume bets are all coming in on the Rays, and it could mean sharp money is on Tampa. Oddsmakers have shifted the line toward the Rays, which would indicate that the money is well respected. Nevertheless, we’re fading that money and going with the Red Sox. The rest of Friday’s MLB games are pretty evenly split down the middle by the public, so let’s shift our attention to some college football:
CFB: Ohio State -21 vs Maryland
This one is worth highlighting because it shows how the public’s sentiments can swing rapidly on a dime. Just a couple weeks ago bettors were really down on Ohio State, and nobody wanted any piece of the Buckeyes. The perception was so negative that the public money was actually on Akron as an underdog of more than 40 points against them a couple weeks ago, which you almost never see.
Then the Buckeyes destroyed Rutgers 52-13 last week, and suddenly all is well again. Now 82 percent of the bets and 93 percent of the money are laying three touchdowns with them over Maryland. It probably doesn’t hurt that the public just saw Maryland get trounced 51-14 by Iowa. The criticism of Ohio State was always an overreaction and a bit hysterical, so we’re going with the Buckeyes as well here.
CFB: Michigan -3.5 @ Nebraska
Sticking in the Big Ten for a moment…. Michigan has been one of college football’s most pleasant surprises this season, and bettors are buying in to what Jim Harbaugh has cooking. The Wolverines are 5-0 and just dismantled Wisconsin last week, and as we all know there’s nothing the public loves more than chasing that kind of momentum. As such, it might not surprise you to learn that 91 percent of both the bets and the public money are laying it with Michigan as a modest road favorite.
But chasing momentum isn’t likely to be a successful long-term strategy, and Nebraska has been playing pretty well of late. They had very close road losses to highly ranked Oklahoma and Michigan State teams, but just crushed Northwestern 56-7 when they finally got to return home. We’re fading the public and backing the home ‘dog in this one.
Don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every NFL game this weekend!
NFL: Titans -4.5 @ Jaguars
I never thought I’d see the day where the heaviest public NFL side was a team that just lost to the Jets. But that’s what playing the Jaguars will do for you. Despite Tennessee’s embarrassing loss to New York as large favorites, bettors are hopping right back on the Ryan Tannehill train. A total of 86 percent of the bets and 93 percent of the public money are laying the points with Tennessee in Week 5.
The Titans are the only NFL team getting more than 90 percent of the handle this week. It speaks to the sad state of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Bettors want no piece of the Jags coming off the Urban Meyer debacle of this past week. The Titans have their flaws, but the Jags are an absolute dumpster fire, so we’re on Tennessee, as well.
NFL: Cowboys -7 vs Giants
Dallas is shaping up to be the next biggest public side of Week 5. Bettors are understandably excited about this Cowboys team, as Dak Prescott is playing at an elite level while the defense has made strides from last year. The Giants can’t get any respect, as bettors are lining up to fade them once again even on the heels of their big upset win over the Saints. A total of 82 percent of the bets and 86 percent of the public money are on Dallas for this pivotal NFC East showdown.
The Cowboys have been impressive, but seven points is a lot for a division game. It’s also interesting that despite the public being on the Cowboys in droves, the line has actually moved toward the Giants since opening around 8. That would seem to suggest that the respected (or ”sharp”) money is coming in on the underdog. We agree with that sentiment, we’re fading the public again here and going with the G-Men.
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