Andrew Ortenberg
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It’s that special time of year when most of the major sports are in action. It’s a lot, and we’re grateful for it. There are plenty of crucial contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the ‘books, with the Warriors leading the way on Thursday.
NBA: Warriors -6 vs Grizzlies
Every year there are a couple of teams that the public just seems to ride every night, and the Warriors are becoming that team this season. Golden State has enjoyed a remarkable bounce-back, and bettors are going to keep riding until the wheels fall off. A total of 81 percent of the bets and 93 percent of the public money are on the Warriors minus the points Thursday, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
Ja Morant is back for the Grizzlies, but that isn’t enough to generate much interest on Memphis. That’s probably because in Morant’s first game back, the Grizzlies lost to the Thunder. We’re backing Stephen Curry tonight, as well.
NBA: Spurs @ Lakers under 223.5
Now here’s something we don’t see every day: a public under! But with the Lakers’ offense struggling, bettors are lining up to fade their offense in the Thursday slate’s nightcap. A total of 81 percent of the bets and 89 percent of the public money are on the under 223.5 here. The Lakers have now failed to top 92 points in two of their past three games, so this one isn’t too hard to understand.
But that might be an overreaction to a small sample size. Los Angeles’ defense hasn’t been nearly as good as it was last year, and the Spurs have been playing in a bunch of high scoring games recently. We’re fading the public and taking the over.
NCAAF: UCF @ Florida over 55.5
Thankfully, order has been restored. This is what we’re much more accustomed to seeing in this column, recreational bettors swarming toward an over. And for this in-state showdown in the Gasparilla Bowl, the public is expecting fireworks. A total 84 percent of the bets and 57 percent of the public money are on the over 55.5 here.
Interestingly, the gap in those two percentages indicates a split here. The over only getting 57 percent of the handle means there have been some large volume bets on the under, even though the overwhelming number of tickets are on the over. With Florida’s defense missing some key pieces, we’re also going over.
NCAAB: Wisconsin -11.5 vs George Mason
From college football to college hoops…. A good chunk of the college basketball slate got scrapped due to COVID-19 issues, but there’s still this showdown between George Mason and Wisconsin. Nobody wants any part of George Mason on the road against a ranked Wisconsin team. A total of 73 percent of the bets and 88 percent of the public money are on the Badgers as a double digit favorite here.
But Wisconsin hasn’t exactly looked great recently. Their last time out, they only beat Nicholls by three at home. In their game before that, they lost by 18 to Ohio State. And five of their past six wins have been by six points or fewer, so we can’t lay this many points with them. We’re fading the public on this one.
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