Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got some nice NBA playoffs and MLB action to report on Thursday, so it’s a solid day despite the NHL being off. There are a lot of big games, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Hawks/Bucks game leading the way.
NBA: Hawks @ Bucks (-2)
Usually we highlight the lopsided splits in this column, but we had to talk about this Hawks/Bucks Game 5. Interestingly, the money is very evenly split so far on the point spread. 52 percent of the bets and 49 percent of the money are on Milwaukee as a short favorite here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
Couldn’t get much closer to 50/50 than that. However, the money line tells a different story. 75 percent of the bets and 73 percent of the money are on Atlanta’s money line at +107. So it appears bettors do favor the Hawks, they’re just more inclined to risk it by not grabbing the two points. We think the Bucks will be demoralized by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s injury so we’re doing the same thing, taking the money line instead of the points.
MLB: Brewers @ Pirates over 8
Nothing the public likes more than a good over. Looking at the baseball slate now, bettors are expecting a home run derby in Pittsburgh. The public saw the Brewers score 15 runs in their most recent game on Wednesday, and went flocking to bet this total. 85 percent of the bets and 94 percent of the money are on the over here.
There were 22 total runs scored in that Milwaukee/Chicago game on Wednesday. Two games before that the Brewers scored 14, so everyone’s excitement is understandable. That being said, these are still two underwhelming offenses here. The Pirates are dead-last in the league in OPS, and the Brewers are 23rd. Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes has been one of MLB’s best pitchers this season, and weather could be a factor, so we’re fading the public and going under here.
MLB: Giants -148 @ Diamondbacks
The public is also lining up very heavily behind the Giants in this NL West matchup. San Francisco has arguably been the best story in the majors this year, but this might be more a fade of the Diamondbacks than anything else. At a relatively modest price, 92 percent of the bets and 82 percent of the money are on the Giants’ money line.
This one isn’t too hard to understand. Arizona might be the worst story in MLB this year, and they’re just 5-41 in their last 46 games. That’s pretty hard to do. Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has been mediocre at best, entering with a 4.73 ERA. There’s just no compelling reason to take the D-Backs here. We’re going with the Giants as well, and in fact it’s one of our ‘MLB Best Bets‘ for Thursday. Our MLB best bets are an incredible 103-58 on the season!
NHL: Lightning -1.5 @ Canadiens
Finishing things up with some playoff hockey and the Stanley Cup Finals. Game 3 of the finals isn’t until Friday, but we can still take an early peek at the bet splits courtesy of DraftKings. The public was heavily on the Lightning for the first two games, and they delivered, but things have changed as the series shifts to Montreal. The money line is virtually even, with 51 percent of both the bets and the money coming in on Tampa at -137.
The puck line is a bit different, as 63 percent of the bets and 77 percent of the money are on the Lightning -1.5. But for the first time in this series, we’re seeing a real appetite for the Canadiens at +118. It’ll be very interesting to see how these numbers shift over the next 24 hours.
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