Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got some nice NBA playoffs and MLB action to report on Tuesday, so it’s a solid day despite the NHL being off. There are a lot of big games, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Bucks/Suns NBA Finals game leading the way.
NBA Finals: Bucks @ Suns (-6)
The playoffs are winding down, and the NBA Finals will kickoff on Tuesday night with the Suns hosting the Bucks. This is an interesting series, and there’s a lot of uncertainty with Giannis Antetokounmpo’s status looming large over everything. It looks like Giannis will be a game-time decision. With so much up in the air, it makes sense that the bet splits are pretty even.
60 percent of the bets are on the Bucks +6, but 60 percent of the money is on Suns -6 for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us. The split between those two figures indicates the majority of bettors are on Milwaukee, but the biggest bets in terms of volume are on Phoenix. The Suns managed to get past the Clippers despite playing far from their best basketball, and with Devin Booker and Chris Paul being ice cold for most of the series. Because of that, we’re siding with the bigger bettors and taking the Suns here.
NBA Finals: Bucks @ Suns O/U 218.5
Funnily enough, we’re seeing a similar story with the total in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. 67 percent of the bets are on the over 218.5, but 53 percent of the money is on the under. That’s a pretty big swing. It’s also unsurprising, since recreational bettors tend to gravitate toward the over in big games.
The two regular season meetings between these teams were also pretty high scoring, which could be a factor. But the Bucks and Suns have been the top two defensive teams in these playoffs, and Phoenix has given up 109 points or fewer in 13 of their 16 postseason games. We’re siding with the whales again and taking the under in Game 1.
MLB: Dodgers -136 @ Marlins
Looking at the baseball slate now, the public likes the Dodgers on Tuesday. Los Angeles is often a staple of this column, despite the fact they haven’t quite lived up to lofty expectations in 2021. Despite that, bettors are flocking again here in Miami. 69 percent of the bets and 86 percent of the money are on the Dodgers -136.
But the Marlins are above .500 at home this season, and they’re starting young stud Pablo Lopez. Lopez has been phenomenal, and he’s only given up more than two runs three times in 17 starts. The Marlins just won the opener of this series on Monday, so it’s not like they’re overmatched. We think there’s some value with the home underdog, so we’re fading the public again and taking Miami.
MLB: Yankees @ Mariners Over 9.5
It might not be the NBA Finals, but the public doesn’t only like overs in huge nationally televised showdowns. They just like them in general. That’s certainly the case in one of the MLB slate’s late games. 80 percent of the bets and 71 percent of the money are on the over 9.5 here in Seattle.
The Yankees’ offense has been a big disappointment in 2021, but that hasn’t scared bettors off banking on double digits here. With Jameson Taillon and Justus Sheffield on the mound, it’s hard to argue too much. Both pitchers have ERAs well over five, and Taillon has an 11.12 ERA on the road. We think there are going to be a lot of runs scored here as well.
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