Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got some nice NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs, and MLB action to report on Thursday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big games, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Suns leading the way.
NBA: Suns -1.5 @ Clippers
The public was pretty evenly split on the spread in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. Even though the Clippers covered that spread, bettors are now flocking to the Suns in Game 3. 68 percent of the bets and 75 percent of the money are on the Suns as a short favorite here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
While that might seem odd, it makes some sense. Phoenix really ripped the Clippers’ hearts out with their last-second win, and it’s easy to see Los Angeles getting demoralized. The Suns managed to win the game despite Devin Booker shooting 5/16 from the field, which likely won’t happen again. Phoenix is also getting Chris Paul back for this one, while Kawhi Leonard remains sidelined. We’ve got to back the Suns as well here.
MLB: Pirates @ Cardinals over 9
Looking at the baseball slate now, bettors are lining up to back this over. Nothing the public loves more than a good over. 67 percent of the bets and 94 percent of the money are on the over 9 here in St. Louis. The large split in those two percentages indicates there have been some very large volume wagers on the over as well.
The public saw Chad Kuhl and Carlos Martinez as the starting pitching matchup, and didn’t need to see much else. Kuhl has an ERA of 5.66 while Martinez’s is 6.62, so it’s hard to argue too much. Martinez is prone to meltdowns and gave up eight earned runs his last time out, so we’ve got to ride the public on this one.
MLB: Cubs @ Dodgers over 8.5
See what I mean about the public and their overs? Another one that jumps off the page is in the opener of this series between the Cubs and the Dodgers. 87 percent of the bets and 91 percent of the money are on the over 8.5 here in Los Angeles. This is a big game between two national brands, so it’s not surprising that bettors want to see fireworks.
Any time two popular teams play each other it’s a good recipe for a lot of over bettors. One possible wrench in their plans is that Walker Buehler is starting for Los Angeles. The Dodgers’ youngster has been dominant this season, and has only given up two total runs in his past three starts. In five of his last seven outings, he’s given up one or zero runs. Cubs starter Zach Davies has actually pitched pretty well recently outside of one bad start against the Marlins, so we’re fading the public and backing the under here.
NHL: Golden Knights to win series +155
Finishing things up with some playoff hockey. In a pivotal Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, the public liked Vegas to take a 3-2 lead. However, the Canadiens emerged victorious and went up 3-2. Betting splits for Game 6 are pretty even on the side and total, so we thought we’d take a look at the series price instead.
Despite their Game 5 failure, 58 percent of the bets and 81 percent of the money are taking Vegas at +155 to win the series. Montreal is a -190 favorite now, and the Golden Knights will need to win two in a row. We can’t guarantee what will happen in a potential Game 7, but we do like Vegas on the money line in tonight’s Game 6.
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