Andrew Ortenberg
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The weekend is almost here, and we’ve got some nice NBA, MLB, and NHL action to report on Thursday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big games, which always attracts some big public sides. Will bettors be lucky this time around? Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Knicks leading the way.
NBA: Knicks -4.5 vs. Spurs
If you would’ve told me last year that the Knicks would be a public darling, I’d have laughed in your face. But that’s where we are, as Tom Thibodeau has done an incredible job turning the team around. Now bettors are piling on, as 72 percent of the bets and 88 percent of the money are laying the points with the Knicks over the Spurs here.
That big split in percentages indicates there have been some very large bets on the Knicks as well. New York has been one of the hottest teams in the league the past month, and they’re 13-4 in their last 17 games. The Spurs on the other hand are just 2-7 in their past nine, so we can’t disagree here. We’re backing the Knicks too.
NBA: Raptors @ Bulls over 217.5
Looking at a total now, the public loves the over in Chicago. Bettors often gravitate toward overs, and all the big public total sides today are overs, so this isn’t too surprising. 74 percent of the bets and 89 percent of the money are on the over 217.5 here for Raptors @ Bulls.
The public saw a total this low for a game involving the Bulls and didn’t need to see much else. However, that’s probably a bit misguided. The Raptors are without a slew of key players, including Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Chris Boucher and OG Anunoby. In four of their past six games, they’ve been held to 102 points or fewer. We think this is going to be a low-scoring slugfest. We’re fading the public and going under here, and in fact it’s one of our ‘NBA Best Bets‘ for Thursday.
MLB: Giants -1.5 @ Pirates
Looking at the baseball slate now. The public has been lining up to fade the Pirates frequently this season, so expect them to be a staple of this column. The Giants have been one of the league’s most pleasant surprises so far, and bettors are ready to hop on the bandwagon. 84 percent of the bets and 89 percent of the money are on their -1.5 run line here in Pittsburgh.
Additionally, 85 percent of the bets and 89 percent of the money are on their money line at -162. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani is having a career year with a 2.40 ERA, while Pittsburgh’s lineup is probably the weakest in the National League. The Pirates are also without Colin Moran, one of their only consistently good hitters. We’re taking the Giants too, although we’re playing it on the money line to keep it safe.
MLB: Reds -148 @ Rockies
The other National League team bettors are swarming to is the Reds. 70 percent of the bets and 81 percent of the money are backing them on the money line against the Rockies at -148. Additionally, 73 percent of the bets and 83 percent of the money are on Cincinnati’s run line at -1.5.
The Rockies haven’t been good this year, but their home/road splits are stark. Colorado is just 2-14 away from home this year, but they’re a solid 11-10 at Coors Field. They aren’t a pushover in the friendly confines of their home stadium. Reds starter Luis Castillo has struggled mightily this season, and Coors is a tough place to get things turned around. We’re fading the public again here and backing the Rockies, albeit +1.5 on the run line.
NHL: Avalanche -1.5 vs. Kings
Finally looking at the NHL board now, the public is locked in on Colorado. In fact, it’s one of the biggest public NHL sides I can recall recently. 93 percent of the bets and a near-unanimous 98 percent of the money are on the Avalanche’s puck line -1.5 here. Even 90 percent of the bets and 87 percent of the money are on their heavily juiced money line at -400.
That tells you what everyone thinks of the Kings. Colorado has their playoff spot locked up, but they’ve still got a ton to play for here in this regular season finale. If they win this game they’ll win the President’s Trophy. Reportedly, each player will receive a $30,000 bonus if that happens. With that extra motivation against a Kings team with nothing to play for, we love Colorado as well. We’re taking the puck line as a three-star play.
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