Andrew Ortenberg
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Hump-day is here, and we’ve got some nice NBA, MLB, NHL, and even NFL Draft action to report on Wednesday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big games, which always attracts some big public sides. Will bettors be lucky this time around? Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Cavaliers surprisingly leading the way.
NBA: Cavaliers -3 vs. Magic
The public loves to lock onto a handful of elite NBA teams and bet them seemingly every day, but we’ve got something different on Wednesday. The Cavaliers aren’t exactly a staple of this column, but here we are. 83 percent of the bets and 83 percent of the money are on Cleveland as a short favorite against Orlando, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
Good for the Cavaliers, but this play is likely more a fade of the Magic than anything else. The Magic blew up their whole team at the trade deadline, and have looked like the worst team in the league ever since. Orlando has lost 12 of their past 13, so no matter what we think of the Cavs, we can’t disagree. We’re rolling with Cleveland here too.
NBA: Knicks -5 vs. Bulls
The Knicks being a public team would’ve seemed unthinkable a year or two ago, but things change fast. New York is now arguably getting more buzz than any other team in the league, and deservedly so. 78 percent of the bets and 90 percent of the money are laying the points with the Knicks over the Bulls here.
The split in those percentages indicates there have been some very large bets on the Knicks. Move over, Cavaliers. The Knicks have won nine of their past 10 games, with the only loss in that span coming to the Suns. The Bulls on the other hand are still without All-Star Zach LaVine. Without LaVine there’s no way we could back Chicago against this elite Knicks defense, so we’re siding with the public again here.
MLB: Dodgers -1.5 vs. Reds
The public is once again going back to the Dodgers on Wednesday. 89 percent of the bets and a ridiculous 94 percent of the money are on Los Angeles -1.5 here. Additionally, 88 percent of the bets and 76 percent of the money are on their money line at -195.
Unlike the Cavaliers, the Dodgers are a staple of this column. What makes this interesting is that they’ve actually been struggling recently. After getting off to a dominant start, the Dodgers have now shockingly lost five of six. Clearly that’s not enough to scare bettors away. Three of those losses came by a single run, and another one was in extra innings. We agree there’s not much to panic about, especially with Clayton Kershaw on the mound Wednesday, so we’re banking on a big bounce back from the Dodgers as well.
NFL Draft: OL drafted in first round over 6.5 (+101)
Switching things up now with an NFL Draft bet. The draft is always a fun event to bet on, with sportsbooks offering a slew of props. One of the most popular is betting how many players at a given position will be drafted in the first round. The public is apparently expecting an early run on linemen.
89 percent of the bets and 95 percent of the money are on the over 6.5 here. There are some guys like Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater who are locked into the top half of the first round, but this prop could come down to the last few picks so buckle up if you’re betting it. Our mock draft has six offensive linemen in the first round, so we’re not as confident as the public is.
NHL: Maple Leafs -139 @ Canadiens
Looking at the NHL now, the public is locked in on Toronto. 91 percent of the bets and 98 percent of the money are backing the Maple Leafs as a short road favorite on the money line. Toronto is 16-6-2 on the road this year, so they clearly don’t have much of an issue playing away from home.
This matchup is interesting since it looks like these teams are going to play in the playoffs shortly. The Maple Leafs are in first place, and have already beaten the Canadiens in four of their six matchups this year. We’re playing Toronto not on the money line but on the puck line here, and in fact it’s one of our ‘NHL best bets‘ for Wednesday.
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