Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got some nice NBA, MLB, and NHL action to report on Wednesday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big games, which always attracts some big public sides. The public cashed in yesterday on the Pacers on the first day of the NBA play-in tournament, will bettors be as lucky Wednesday? Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Grizzlies leading the way.
NBA: Grizzlies -4 vs. Spurs
The public backed the Pacers in a big way on Tuesday, and it paid off. Looking at Wednesday’s two NBA games, they like another short home favorite. 71 percent of the bets and 77 percent of the money are on the Grizzlies minus the points, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
Additionally, 80 percent of the bets and 81 percent of the money are on their money line at -177. Bettors saw what king of effort the Hornets put up last night, and decided they didn’t want any part of any more 10 seeds. The Grizzlies also won their last two games against the Spurs by 31 and 27 points, which is surely fresh in the mind of the public. Memphis clearly owns this matchup, so we’re backing them at home here as well.
NBA: Lakers vs. Warriors over 219.5
Nothing the public loves more than a good over. Bettors often flock to the over in high profile games, so why would it be any different in the main even of the play-in tournament? 83 percent of the bets and 74 percent of the money are on the over 219.5 here. Stephen Curry vs. LeBron James, bettors want to see some fireworks. The Spurs and Grizzlies are seen as the less glamorous teams, but the total in their contest is actually a bit higher.
The Lakers were a big disappointment this season, and what kept them afloat was their defense. The public has understandably gotten excited about the show Curry has put on recently, and they want to see him drop 50 points. However, the last two times these teams played, the Warriors were held to 97 points or fewer. We’re fading the public and backing the under here.
MLB: Marlins @ Phillies over 7.5
Looking at the baseball slate now. There’s one total in MLB that is getting absolutely hammered on Wednesday. 71 percent of the bets and 94 percent of the money are on the over 7.5 here in Philadelphia. The large splits in those two percentages mean there have also been some very large wagers on the over.
Zach Eflin is coming off a tough outing, but other than that it’s hard to see what people love about this over. Eflin is still a very solid starter, and the Marlins are pitching Trevor Rogers who has been phenomenal. Rogers has a 1.84 ERA while Miami’s offense is pretty weak, so we’re fading the public on another total and going under as well here.
NHL: Capitals @ Bruins over 5.5
See what I mean about the public liking their overs? Why would anything be different as we pivot to the NHL playoffs. Bettors want to see excitement, and especially in big nationally televised games you’re hardly ever going to see them go under. To that end, 80 percent of the bets and 86 percent of the money are on the over 5.5 here in Boston.
The Bruins’ top line hasn’t looked good, and the first game of this series stayed under. The second game only went over because it went to overtime. Four of Boston’s last six and three of Washington’s last four have also stayed under the total. We’re going three for three and fading the public on yet another total. We like the under in this spot.
NHL: Oilers -167 vs. Jets
Looking at one of the later games, the public is lining up behind Edmonton. 80 percent of the bets and 78 percent of the money are on the Oilers’ money line at -167. Edmonton is 7-3 in their last ten games, and they also dominated the Jets this season, so this one isn’t too surprising.
In nine matchups against each other, the Oilers won seven times, which bettors surely remember well. On the other hand Winnipeg limped into the playoffs, losing seven of their last ten, and they even had a seven-game losing streak in April. We don’t want any piece of them either. In fact, we’re playing the Oilers on the -1.5 puck line to get even better odds.
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