Andrew Ortenberg
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Playoff baseball is here, and we also have NFL Week 5 to look forward to. There are a lot of crucial contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the ‘books, with the Yankees leading the way on Tuesday.
Don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for all of college football’s biggest games this weekend, posted by Wednesday!
MLB: Yankees -125 @ Red Sox
The regular season is in the books, and it’s time for the MLB playoffs. We couldn’t have really asked for a better matchup for the AL wild card game as the Red Sox host the Yankees. One of the best rivalries in the sport with stakes that couldn’t be higher. For this crucial elimination game, bettors know which side they prefer. A total of 61 percent of the bets and 72 percent of the public money are on New York -125 here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
The gap between those two percentages indicates that the larger volume bets have been on the Yanks, as well. Clearly bettors think the Yankees have an edge on the mound with Gerrit Cole going up against Nathan Eovaldi. But Cole has struggled at Fenway Park throughout his career, and he had a 5.13 ERA in six September starts. We’re fading the public and going with Boston.
NFL: Rams -2.5 @ Seahawks
Looking away from baseball now and to the NFL. We don’t have the full Week 5 splits yet, but DraftKings is at least giving us a peak at Thursday Night Football. We have another great primetime clash as the Seahawks host the Rams in a game with huge implications for the NFC West. So far 79 percent of the bets and 80 percent of the public money are on Los Angeles -2.5 here.
This one is interesting, since usually the public likes to chase momentum. The Seahawks just picked up a road win over the 49ers, while the Rams got bludgeoned by the Cardinals. Yet the public going with the team who just got pummeled. We agree with the public on this one; we’re counting on a bounce back from Sean McVay’s squad, as well.
NFL: Rams @ Seahawks over 54.5
There’s also a public side brewing on the total in this game. The public always loves their overs, especially in primetime standalone games. Both offenses have a lot of star-power, so this one wasn’t too hard to see coming. A total 65 percent of the bets and 68 percent of the public money are on the over 54.5 in this one.
McVay and Matthew Stafford have thrived in the first year of their partnership while their defense just got torched by Kyler Murray, so I’m not surprised bettors are expecting a shootout. The Seahawks’ defense once again appears to be a mess, so we’re also going with the over.
Don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every NFL game this weekend!
NBA championship odds: Lakers +400, Nets +200
The MLB playoffs and NFL are getting most of the attention right now, but the start of the NBA season is also right around the corner. The action will get underway in less than a month, so let’s take a peak at the futures splits. DraftKings has given us a look at the championship bet splits, and the public is feeling very chalky. The Lakers (+400) are first and the Nets (+200) are second, and then there’s a huge gap. A total of 37 percent of the bets and 29 percent of the money are on the Lakers; 22 percent of both the bets and the public money are on the Nets.
Third place is the Bulls at 80/1, and they’re only getting 5 percent of the bets and 8 percent of the handle. There’s a massive drop-off after the two most popular teams. Bettors really are expecting to see LeBron James and Anthony Davis take on Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden in the NBA Finals.
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