Andrew Ortenberg
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The weekend is almost here, and we’ve got some nice NBA, MLB, NHL, and even NFL Draft action to report on Thursday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big games, which always attracts some big public sides. Will bettors be lucky this time around? Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Warriors leading the way.
NBA: Warriors -4 @ Timberwolves
The public loves to lock onto a handful of elite NBA teams and bet them seemingly every day, but we’ve got something different on Wednesday. The Warriors aren’t exactly a staple of this column, but they have been hot recently so here we are. 79 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the money are on the Warriors as a short road favorite against Minnesota, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
This play may be more of a fade of the Timberwolves than anything else. Minnesota was arguably the worst team in the league for the first few months, and bettors are still locked in against them. However, things have changed. The T-Wolves were never as bad as they seemed, and they were really banged up for much of the year. First overall pick Anthony Edwards is coming into his own, and the team has now won four of their past five. Two of those wins came against the Jazz. For all those reasons, we’re fading the public and backing Minnesota here. In fact, it’s one of our ‘NBA Best Bets‘ for the day. We got it at +5.5, so it pays to check Pickswise early.
NBA: Mavericks @ Pistons 0ver 214
Switching things up with a total now. Nothing the public loves more than a good over. The Mavericks are seen as a team that plays in a bunch of shootouts, and that perception often causes bettors to pound their overs. 82 percent of the bets and 74 percent of the money are on the over 214 here in Detroit.
The public saw a game involving the Mavericks with a total this low and didn’t need to see anything more. But Dallas has a slew of key guys who are questionable for this one, and six players are out for the Pistons. The under has cashed in eight of Detroit’s last 11, and the O/U is 13-18 for the Mavericks on the road this season. The Pistons also just held the Hawks to 86 points in their most recent game. We’re fading the public again here and going under.
MLB: Dodgers -1.5 @ Brewers
The public is once again going back to the Dodgers on Thursday. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. 89 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the money are on Los Angeles -1.5 here. Additionally, 89 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the money are on their money line at -190.
Needless to say, the Dodgers are a staple of this column. What makes this interesting is that they’ve actually been struggling recently. After getting off to a dominant start, the Dodgers have now shockingly gone 2-5 in their last seven. Clearly that’s not enough to scare bettors away. But the offense really hasn’t looked anything like the vaunted unit it was hyped up to be. The public has inflated their lines, and we think there’s a little value on the Brewers as a result.
NFL Draft: Player to be drafted in the top 5
Switching things up now with an NFL Draft bet. The draft is always a fun event to bet on, with sportsbooks offering a slew of props. One prop DraftKings is offering is wagering on players to be picked in the top five. Kyle Pitts is at -400, and he’s the most popular selection drawing 22 percent of the bets and 36 percent of the money.
Ja’Marr Chase, who many think the Bengals will take at five, is -200. 11 percent of the bets but 28 percent of the money are on him. Clearly, there have been some large wagers on Chase going in the top five. Perhaps someone knows something? Penei Sewell is at +125, garnering 24 percent of the bets but only 11 percent of the money. Justin Fields is also +125, and he’s getting 16 percent of the bets and nine percent of the money. Check out our mock draft to see where we have all those guys going.
NHL: Bruins -1.5 vs. Sabres
Looking at the NHL now, the public is locked in on Boston. 85 percent of the bets and 90 percent of the money are backing the Bruins as a big favorite on the puck line. You’ve got to lay around -145 just to take the -1.5, but that juice isn’t enough to scare anybody off Boston.
Nine of the Bruins’ last 10 wins have come by multiple goals, so we understand backing them on the puck line. The Sabres are also one of the worst teams in the league, entering at 13-30-7. Boston is already 5-1 against Buffalo this year, so we’re rolling with the public on this one and backing them as well.
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