Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
A new week is here, and we’ve got some nice NBA, MLB, and NHL action on Monday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big games, which always attracts some big public sides. Will bettors be lucky this time around? Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Jazz leading the way.
NBA: Jazz -10 @ Timberwolves
The public loves to lock onto a handful of elite NBA teams and bet them seemingly every day, and that’s the case on Monday. The Jazz playing one of the worst teams in the league isn’t a spot that the public was about to pass up. 83 percent of the bets and 84 percent of the money are on Utah -10 here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
The public usually isn’t too scared about laying double digits, especially against a team like the Timberwolves. The Jazz are still without Donovan Mitchell, but that isn’t enough to scare anyone away either. Minnesota just beat the Jazz in Utah, so this is a revenge spot. We don’t think the Timberwolves are going to catch lightning in a bottle twice, so we’re siding with the public and laying the points here.
NBA: Bulls @ Heat over 206.5
Switching things up with a total now. The public likely saw a game involving the Bulls have a total in the low 200s and didn’t need to see anything else. 90 percent of the bets and 93 percent of the money are on the over 206.5 here in Miami. While this total is low by today’s NBA standards, there are some clear reasons why.
The Bulls are still without All-Star Zach LaVine, and the offense has been struggling without him. Miami is obviously a defense-first team, and they prefer grind it out games. They’re going to slow this one down and try to out-physical the Bulls here. The public loves their overs, but we’re fading them and going under here.
MLB: Brewers -1.5 vs. Marlins
Looking at the baseball slate now, the public is all over Milwaukee. The Brewers have been a bit better than expected so far, and are currently in first place in the NL Central. That’s got bettors excited, and 87 percent of the bets as well as 95 percent of the money are on their run line Monday against the Marlins.
Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes has been fantastic, and the public is going to keep riding him until he falters. But Burnes’ success is unsustainable, and his 0.37 ERA so far has inflated this line. Marlins starter Trevor Rogers has also been dominant, and there’s value in getting better than +150 here. As such, we’re fading the public and making a small play on Miami’s money line.
MLB: Dodgers -1.5 vs. Reds
The public is also nearly unanimous in their love for the Dodgers on Monday. 92 percent of the bets and a ridiculous 98 percent of the money are on Los Angeles -1.5 here. Additionally, 88 percent of the bets and 81 percent of the money are on their money line at -186.
The Dodgers just endured a tough series against the Padres and blew a 7-1 lead on Sunday night, but bettors aren’t too concerned. Los Angeles still has easily the best run differential in the league, so they’re always a prime run line target. The Reds are also in free-fall with seven straight losses, so this one isn’t too hard to understand. We’re banking on a big bounce back from the Dodgers as well.
NHL: Hurricanes -122 @ Stars
Looking at the NHL now, the public is locked in on Carolina. 81 percent of the bets and 90 percent of the money are backing them as a short road favorite on the money line. The Hurricanes are in first place, and bettors saw them be nearly even against a middle of the pack team and jumped all over it.
But there are some other factors at play here. The Stars have won five of their past six and are suddenly locked in a tight race for the final playoff spot from their division. They’re closing strong, while the Hurricanes are dealing with a lot of injuries as the regular season winds down. They have more to play for, so we’re backing Dallas as a home underdog against a shorthanded Hurricanes team.
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