Andrew Ortenberg
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As we kickoff a brand new week of betting, we’ve got a nice NBA slate of seven games as well as a big slate of NHL contests. There are only a couple of notable college basketball games, but this should be more than enough to tide us over. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books.
NBA: Brooklyn Nets -4 @ Sacramento Kings
The most heavily bet side of the afternoon NBA slate is the Nets, and to say the public is all over them would be a dramatic understatement. A whopping 89 percent of the bets, as well as an incredible 98 percent of the money, are on Brooklyn -4 over Sacramento today, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us. A nightcap featuring a team with a lot of star-power against a team that isn’t relevant nationally is always going to be a recipe for a public pile-on.
The Kings haven’t looked good recently, losing three straight games. The two most recent losses were double digit defeats at the hands of the Magic and Grizzlies, while the Nets are coming off big wins over the Pacers and Warriors. We can’t disagree with the public here.
NBA: Golden State Warriors -9 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
You could’ve made a lot of money fading the Cavaliers recently, and the public is headed back to the well on Monday. 78 percent of the bets and 93 percent of the money is on the Warriors spread here. When you look at Cleveland’s recent games, those staggering numbers start to make some sense.
They haven’t just lost seven games in a row, they’ve lost most of them in truly ugly fashion. Only one of those seven games was decided by less than 17 points, and their defense has looked like the worst in the league over the past couple weeks. There’s no way we could fade the narrative and back Cleveland here.
NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 vs. Ottawa Senators
The NHL side the public is gravitating toward most on Monday is the Maple Leafs at home against the Senators. 87 percent of the bets and 95 percent of the money are on Toronto -1.5 goals. The money line splits are pretty similar, at 92 and 93 percent of bets and money respectively.
The Maple Leafs are on top of the division at 11-3-1, while Ottawa is in the basement at 3-12-1. Many of the Senators’ losses this season have been lopsided, which explains why everyone is salivating over that puck line. We’re backing the Maple Leafs on the puck line as well, and it’s one of our ‘NHL best bets‘ for the day.
NBA: Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks over 218
I can’t wait to see how this one plays out, since we’ve got two teams with very conflicting styles here. The Knicks are giving up the fewest points in the NBA this season, while the Hawks are perceived as more of a ‘run and gun’ team. Clearly bettors think offense will win out, as 88 percent of the bets and 90 percent of the money are on the over 218 here.
Notice I said ‘perceived’ above, because Atlanta hasn’t actually been playing in quite as many shootouts as you might think. They’re right in the middle of the pack in both points per game and points per game allowed on the season. New York is giving up less than 104 per game, so we’re fading the public here and going under.
NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 vs. Florida Panthers
The Maple Leafs aren’t the only big NHL favorite seeing a lot of tickets, as the Lightning are getting hammered as well. 80 percent of the bets and 96 percent of the money are on Tampa Bay -1.5. The money line is at 88 and 94 percent for those figures. The Lightning just beat Florida 6-1 on on Saturday, although Florida won this matchup 5-2 on Thursday.
The Panthers’ last six wins prior to that were all by a single goal though, and I don’t think they’re as good as their record indicates. Tampa has once again looked elite, but to be safer we’re taking them on the money line instead of puck line.
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