Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
The 2021 World Series is officially in full swing, and we also have full NBA and NHL slates to look forward to. It’s a lot, and we’re grateful for it. There are a lot of crucial contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the ‘books, with the Hawks leading the way on Wednesday.
NBA: Hawks -6 @ Pelicans
We are starting things off with some NBA action. There are nine games on Wednesday, and the Hawks are the biggest public side. A total of 86 percent of the bets and 86 percent of the public money are laying the six points with Atlanta here in New Orleans, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
The public is understandably excited about the Hawks on the heels of their thrilling run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, but this could also be a fade of the Pelicans just as much as anything else. New Orleans is playing without Zion Williamson right now, and the early returns haven’t been encouraging. We’re agreeing with the public on this one and backing Trae Young here. The Hawks are also part of our Wednesday NBA mega parlay (+1298 odds!)
NBA: Heat @ Nets over 218.0
The Hawks are the big public side of the NBA on Wednesday, and there’s also a big public total. There’s nothing the public loves more than a good over, especially in a big game involving top-tier teams. Which is why it shouldn’t be surprising that they’re leaning over here in this showdown between the Heat and Nets. A total of 80 percent of the bets and 86 percent of the public money are on the over 218.
Brooklyn was expected to be dominant on offense, but that hasn’t been the case so far without Kyrie Irving. In fact, the Nets are averaging only 104.3 points per game. We’re fading the public and taking the under in this Eastern Conference matchup.
MLB: Braves @ Astros over 8.5
Turning our attention to the World Series now. See what I mean about the public and their overs? The public was all over the over in Game 1 of the Fall Classic yesterday, and most bettors pushed as the game ended 6-2 with a total that was 8.0 for much of the run-up. Now the total is 8.5, and bettors are going right back to the over. A total of 65 percent of the bets and 79 percent of the public money are on the over 8.5 for Game 2.
Those numbers were 83 and 87 for the over yesterday, so there’s not quite as much consensus as there was for Game 1. The gap between 65 and 79 also indicates that there have been some large volume bets on the over as well. Houston starter Framber Valdez had a rough time early on in Game 1, but other than that the pitching was excellent on both sides. We’re fading the public on this total as well and going under here.
NFL: Packers @ Cardinals over 50.5
This one is interesting. The total for Thursday Night Football has come down significantly from around 53 in the wake of Davante Adams and Allen Lazard both landing on the COVID-19 list. But that isn’t enough to scare bettors away from yet another over. A total of 81 percent of the bets and 80 percent of the public money are on the over 50.5 for this highly anticipated NFC matchup.
This is one of the biggest games of the entire season and it’s a nationally televised standalone spot, so it’s not too shocking that bettors are flocking to the over despite the blows to the Packers’ offense. Clearly, the public believes Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray will be enough to turn this one into a shootout. Our expert disagrees, though, as we are fading the public again and taking the under.
NHL: Maple Leafs -170 @ Blackhawks
We’ll finish things up with some NHL action. Yesterday we saw a rare public underdog in the NHL, but that’s not the case on Wednesday. Bettors are back to feeling chalky on the ice. A total 83 percent of the bets and a whopping 94 percent of the public money are on the Maple Leafs as a sizable road favorite over the Blackhawks.
This one is pretty interesting, since Toronto has lost four straight games. Usually the public likes to chase momentum, but not here. On the other hand the Blackhawks have yet to win a game this season, so the Maple Leafs’ losing streak looks modest by comparison. We’re on the side of the public, but we’re taking Toronto on the puck line.
Don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every NFL game this season!
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