Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
It’s that special time of year when most of the major sports are in action. It’s a lot, and we’re grateful for it. There are plenty of crucial contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the ‘books, with the Hawks leading the way on Wednesday.
NBA: Hawks -7.5 @ Magic
There are a few teams in every sport that the public latches onto seemingly every game. Then there are a few teams in every sport that the public likes to fade seemingly every game. The Magic are one of those teams. Whoever Orlando is playing is often featured in this column, and that’s the case with the Hawks on Wednesday. A total of 91 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the public money are laying the points with Atlanta, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
This one is interesting because the Hawks have actually been slumping recently, losing four of their past five games. But that’s not enough to get anyone excited about the Magic. Atlanta just lost to the Rockets at home their last time out, so we can’t lay this many points with them on the road. We’re fading the public here and backing the home underdog Orlando.
NBA: Nuggets -4.5 vs Timberwolves
Elsewhere on the NBA slate, the public is also swarming to bet Denver for their matchup with Minnesota. The Nuggets have been a bit of a disappointment this season, but nobody is playing at a higher level than Nikola Jokic. Accordingly, 86 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the public money are backing Jokic as a modest favorite on Wednesday night.
The Timberwolves caught fire and won seven of eight recently, then fell on hard times again. They did bounce back with a road win over Portland in their most recent game, and their mini losing streak had more to do with playing a tough schedule than anything else. Check out my Wednesday NBA mega parlay (+1034 odds!) to find out why I’m fading the public and taking T-Wolves money line.
NHL: Capitals -145 @ Blackhawks
Turning our attention from the NBA to some hockey now. Oddsmakers have the Capitals as a modest road favorite for their trip to Chicago, but clearly bettors think this line should be a lot more lopsided. 83 percent of the bets and a whopping 94 percent of the public money are laying it with Washington on the money line here.
The gap in those two percentages also indicates that the larger volume bets have come in on the Caps, as well. Washington is only 3-3 in their last six, but right before that they were on a 9-2 run. We’re siding with the public on this one.
NFL: Dolphins -8.5 vs Jets
We’ll wrap things up with a couple of Week 15 NFL games. In yesterday’s column, we looked at the Thursday night game and the couple of Saturday Week 15 clashes. Now it’s time to look at the full Sunday card. If you had said a little over a month ago when they were 1-7 that the Dolphins would be a heavy public side, you would’ve got laughed at. But now Miami is red-hot, having won five in a row.
This is also just what playing the Jets will do for you. A total of 77 percent of the bets and 89 percent of the public money are eager to lay more than a touchdown with Tua Tagovailoa; never thought I’d say those words! Don’t forget to check our NFL picks tab for free picks on the side and total of every Week 15 game.
NFL: Packers -5 @ Ravens
On the other hand, the Packers are never surprising to see as a public team. Bettors always have confidence in Aaron Rodgers, and it’s well deserved. Now 90 percent of the bets and 83 percent of the public money are on him as a sizable road favorite in Baltimore. There’s a lot of uncertainty with this number, as it’s unclear if Lamar Jackson is going to play.
Even if Jackson does play, it looks like bettors are expecting his troublesome ankle to hinder him significantly. Green Bay just picked up yet another win on national television in their most recent game, which is freshest in the public’s mind. It’ll be interesting to see where this number goes as we get more clarity on Jackson later in the week.
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