Andrew Ortenberg
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It’s that special time of year, when most of the major sports are in action. It’s a lot, and we’re grateful for it. There are a lot of crucial contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the ‘books, with the Golden State Warriors leading the way on Monday.
NBA: Warriors -3.5 vs Hawks
The Warriors fell on hard times the past couple of seasons. They aren’t exactly back to their dynasty heyday yet, but they are back to being a public side again. Golden State used to be the team the public would back no matter what, and they’re trending in that direction again. 84 percent of the bets and a whopping 95 percent of the public money are laying the points with the Warriors over the Hawks, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
The gap in those two percentages indicates there have been some large volume bets on the Warriors as well. Atlanta has been a bit of a disappointment this season, starting 4-6, which also helps explain this. However, the Hawks haven’t been quite as bad as their record suggests, while the Warriors are playing the second half of a back to back. We’re fading the public and going with Atlanta plus the points.
NBA: Heat @ Nuggets over 205
Nothing the public loves more than a good over. Bettors likely saw a total of only 205 in today’s NBA and didn’t need to see anything more. We don’t see too many public under spots, and especially not with a total this low. Accordingly, 76 percent of the bets and 94 percent of the public money are on the over 205 here.
Miami is known as a defensive team, but they’ve played in a few high scoring games recently. However, they did just play in an ugly 95-78 game the other night. The Nuggets have struggled on offense, too, averaging fewer than 98 points per game over their last four contests. We’re fading the public again here and looking under.
NFL: Bears @ Steelers over 40
See what I mean about the public and their overs? Bettors are always going to gravitate toward the over for big nationally televised games, and that’s the case here for Monday Night Football. The splits aren’t nearly as overwhelming as the over in the Heat/Nuggets game, but bettors are still expecting some points here. A total of 68 percent of the bets and 60 percent of the public money is on the over 40.
This is one of the lowest totals of the whole season, and oddsmakers aren’t anticipating much offense. Both units have been pretty anemic, and neither team has much of a downfield passing game. Even in their win last week, the Steelers still only mustered 15 points. We’re fading the public yet again and backing the under for MNF.
NHL: Panthers -115 @ Rangers
Turning our attention to the NHL now to wrap things up. Oddsmakers have this game between the Panthers and Rangers as virtually even, but bettors clearly don’t see it that way. 79 percent of the bets and 77 percent of the public money is on Florida here as the slightest of favorites. The Rangers are coming off an ugly 6-0 loss to the Flames, which helps explain this.
Given how these teams have fared recently, I’m surprised the splits aren’t even starker. The Rangers have lost three in a row, while the Panthers have only lost one game all season and that came in overtime. We have no choice but to agree with the public and back Florida.
Don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every NFL game this season!
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