Andrew Ortenberg
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The weekend is here, and we’ve got some nice NBA, MLB, and NHL action to report on Friday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big games, which always attracts some big public sides. Will bettors be lucky this time around? Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Lakers getting faded once again.
NBA: Trail Blazers -7 vs. Lakers
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Usually the Lakers are a public side, but today they find themselves getting faded heavily. It’s the second time this week, as bettors are fleeing as the Lakers are in free-fall. 78 percent of the bets and 94 percent of the money are laying the points with Portland here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
That big split between the bets and money also means there have been some large wagers on the Trail Blazers. The Lakers have shockingly lost seven of nine games, and now LeBron James is hurt again. The Lakers have looked downright awful lately, and the public is piling on. With James not playing we’ve got to fade the Lakers as well, and in fact the Blazers are one of our ‘NBA Best Bets‘ for Friday.
NBA: Mavericks -10.5 vs. Cavaliers
The other overwhelming public NBA side of the day is the Mavericks. 82 percent of the bets and 88 percent of the money are taking Dallas as a sizable favorite here. The Mavs have been nice recently, but this could be more a fade of the Cavaliers than anything else. The public has understandably turned quite hard against Cleveland recently.
But the Cavs have been more competitive than most people realize, for example they just took the Suns to overtime the other night. Collin Sexton is back in the lineup now, and the Mavs have often played down to the level of their competition. As such, we’re making a small value play on the Cavaliers here. After all, it’s not like they’re the Lakers.
MLB: Brewers @ Marlins over 6.5
Looking at the baseball slate now and switching things up with a total, the public is expecting a lot of runs in Miami. 84 percent of the bets and a near unanimous 98 percent of the money are on the over 6.5 here. When the public sees a total this low, they usually don’t need to see much else.
But Miami starter Trevor Rogers has been phenomenal in 2021, entering with a 1.91 ERA. He’s given up zero runs in three of his six starts. The Marlins are a pretty weak-hitting team, so they tend to end up in a lot of pitcher’s duels. We’re fading the public again here and making a small play on the under.
MLB: Twins -1.5 @ Tigers
The public also wants to keep fading the Tigers on Friday. 83 percent of the bets and 86 percent of the money are on Minnesota’s run line here. Additionally, 87 percent of the bets and 79 percent of the money are on the Twins’ money line at -148. Detroit is just 9-23 on the year, and they’re last in the league in many offensive categories.
They’re just 3-17 in their last 20, and have mostly looked like a AAA squad. Their offensive floor is so low that it always makes sense to fade them on the run line. We’re playing Minnesota on the money line to keep it safe though, and it’s one of our ‘MLB Best Bets‘ for Friday.
NHL: Blues @ Golden Knights over 5.5
Finally looking at the NHL board now, the public is locked in on this over. Nothing the public loves more than a good over. There are a few big NHL totals on Friday, but none bigger than this one. 90 percent of the bets and a whopping 98 percent of the money are on the over 5.5 here.
Five of the six meetings between these teams this season have seen at least six total goals. This line does feel a bit conservative, and like oddsmakers are accounting too much for the high stakes of this game. After all, Vegas is fourth in the NHL in scoring this season. We’ve got to agree with the public here, we’re taking the over as well.
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