Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
We have plenty of MLB games to report and we also have college football Week 1 to look forward to, so there’s still a lot to pore over. If you’ve grown tired of the slow summer months don’t worry, real football is right around the corner. There are a lot of big contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Notre Dame/Florida State game leading the way on Friday.
Don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for all of college football’s biggest games this weekend!
CFB: #9 Notre Dame @ Florida State over 55.0
In this column the past couple of days I’ve identified a few big public sides for Saturday’s Week 1 college football slate. But we’ve also got a great game on Sunday that has a big public side brewing. Bettors seem to be expecting some fireworks in this showdown between Notre Dame and Florida State.
93 percent of the bets and 77 percent of the public money are on the over 55 here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us. The split in those two percentages indicates some of the larger bets have been on the under however. Perhaps some sharps are on the under. We often see the public gravitate toward the over in these big standalone nationally televised games. Even with Ian Book moving on to the NFL, bettors are still expecting big things from this Fighting Irish offense. We think Notre Dame is going to be a bit more conservative and run-heavy without Book out there, so we’re fading the public and going under here.
MLB: Phillies @ Marlins over 7.5
Looking at the baseball slate now. See what I mean about the public and their overs? You might not necessarily think of the Marlins as a team that screams public over, but this one probably has more to do with the Phillies. Philly’s offense has been hot recently, and as a result 87 percent of the bets and 96 percent of the public money are on the over 7.5 here.
Philadelphia has remarkably scored at least seven runs in at least seven straight games, so it’s hard to argue. Miami might not need to do too much here to send this one over. Especially when you consider that Jesus Luzardo and his 7.19 ERA are starting for the Marlins here. We’re backing the public and taking the over here.
MLB: Angels -190 vs Rangers
Granted the Angels are a large favorite here, but this is still a little overwhelming. A whopping 95 percent of the bets and 96 percent of the public money are on the Angels here in the first game of this AL West rivalry series. Los Angeles hasn’t exactly been great recently, so this might be a fade of Texas more than anything else.
Shohei Ohtani is on the mound for the Angels, which is always going to attract some public excitement. It also doesn’t hurt that the Rangers are 16-49 on the road this year. We’re going with the Angels on the run line here, and it’s one of our ‘MLB Best Bets‘ for Friday.
MLB: Mariners -120 @ Diamondbacks
Similarly to the Angels, this one might be just as much a fade of the team they’re playing than an endorsement of the Mariners. Bettors saw a team pretty much even money against the Diamondbacks and went flocking. 75 percent of the bets and 81 percent of the public money are on the Mariners in another one of the slate’s late games.
Arizona has been the worst team in the National League this season, and they’re just 45-90 overall. Seattle is 10 games above .500, so it was a little surprising to see oddsmakers make this line so close. The Mariners have pitched shutouts in back to back games, and we’re making a small play on their money line as well.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB predictions, NBA predictions , NHL predictions, and college basketball predictions.
