Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
We’ve got some nice NBA, MLB and NHL action to report on Tuesday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big playoff games, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the 76ers leading the way.
NBA: 76ers -6 vs. Hawks
The 76ers got clowned by the Hawks in Game 1 of their series, but bettors aren’t scared away. In fact, the public is counting on a big bounce back from Philly. 56 percent of the bets and 79 percent of the money are laying the points with the 76ers, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
The big split in those two figures indicates there have been some very large bets on the 76ers. Everybody saw Philly nearly storm back to complete a miraculous comeback, so perhaps that’s what is freshest in their minds. To be fair, it does seem like Atlanta benefitted from a flukily hot shooting night, and the 76ers actually didn’t play bad at all. We agree that the Hawks are going to come crashing down to earth here.
NBA: Hawks at 76ers over 223.5
There’s an even bigger public side brewing on this game. There’s nothing the public loves more than a good over, especially in a big game. This pivotal Game 2 showdown between the 76ers and Hawks certainly qualifies. 85 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the money are on the over 223.5 here.
The public saw 252 points scored in the opener of this series, so this one isn’t too hard to figure out. Joel Embiid showed in Game 1 that he’s fully healthy, and the 76ers’ offense certainly wasn’t the problem. De’Andre Hunter missed Game 1 and is questionable here, and Atlanta really needs him on defense. The over is 4-0 in the 76ers’ last four games, and we agree that this total is a bit low.
NBA: Clippers at Jazz over 221.0
Another total, another over. Bettors are lining up just as heavily behind the over in Utah as the Jazz host the Clippers for the start of their second round series. 78 percent of the bets and 84 percent of the money are on the over 221 here. The Clippers are coming off a Game 7 shootout against the Mavericks where they put up 126 points, so perhaps that explains bettors’ thinking here.
But in the previous three games of that series, there hadn’t been more than 205 total points scored. The Clips were getting it done with their defense, not their offense, and the under is 16-6-1 in their last 23 games. Mike Conley isn’t going to play here, which is a big downgrade for the Jazz’s offense. Two of the three regular season matchups between these teams saw 210 points or fewer get scored. Everything seems to point toward an under here, so we’re fading the public on this one.
MLB: Yankees -118 @ Twins
Looking at the baseball slate now. Oddsmakers have this AL clash in Minnesota as nearly even, but bettors certainly don’t see it that way. The Yankees are only a slight favorite, but the public is piling on big time. 87 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the money are taking New York’s money line at -118.
This one is interesting because the Yankees are struggling mightily. The Yanks are just 2-8 in their last 10 games, and it’s not too often that we see a team slumping that hard getting hammered by the public. Twins starter Michael Pineda has been great this season, and even better at home with a 2.62 ERA. Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery has been terrible on the road, and the Twins hit lefties well. This one is head-scratching, and we’re fading the public once again here and taking Minnesota.
NHL: Avalanche -148 vs. Golden Knights
We’ll finish things off with some playoff hockey. Things are knotted up at 2-2 in this series, and the public know who they like in this pivotal Game 5 clash. 67 percent of the bets and 75 percent of the money are on Colorado’s money line at -148 here. Additionally, 56 percent of the bets and 69 percent of the money are on their puck line at -1.5.
But it would be hard to argue that Vegas hasn’t outplayed Colorado in this series. They arguably should be up 3-1 if not for a controversial overtime penalty call, and have been getting off way more shots than the Avalanche. Getting this much plus-money with the team that has played better in this series is too good to pass up, so we’re fading the public and taking the Golden Knights. In fact, it’s a three-star play for us.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB predictions, NBA predictions , NHL predictions, and college basketball predictions.
