Andrew Ortenberg
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We have some MLB action to report while we also look ahead to Game 6 of the NBA Finals, so it’s a busy day despite most sports being off. There are a lot of big contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the NBA Finals leading the way.
NBA Finals: Suns +5 @ Bucks
The NBA Finals are nearing the end. After falling down 2-0, the Bucks have won three in a row to put themselves on the verge of a championship. Although Milwaukee has all of the momentum, and that’s often what dictates public betting the most; that hasn’t been the case so far. We also don’t see public underdogs all that often, but that’s what we’re seeing here.
A total of 64 percent of the bets and 59 percent of the money so far are grabbing the points with the Suns, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us. It appears bettors have decided that five points is simply too much for a win or go home NBA Finals game. Phoenix lost Game 5 despite shooting 68 percent from downtown, so it would be hard for them to argue they just got unlucky. With the series shifting back to Milwaukee, we’re fading the public here and taking the home favorite.
Super Bowl winner: Chiefs +500, Buccaneers +600
With this being a quiet period in sports, DraftKings offered us an early peak at their NFL futures splits. So far bettors have been pretty chalky, with the Chiefs and Buccaneers leading the way at +500 and +600 respectively. 17 percent of the bets and 19 percent of the money are on Kansas City, while 15 percent of the bets and 17 percent of the money are on Tampa Bay.
The Bills and Rams are in third and fourth place respectively at +1100 and +1300. Our first indication of an appetite for a long-shot comes at fifth and sixth, where the Patriots and Broncos are both at +3500. At that point they’re down to around five percent of the money though.
Make sure to check out our NFL News tab for all the great futures content we havve already published and have coming up.
MLB: Padres -135 @ Braves
After the NBA Finals and NFL futures, it’s time to turn our attention to Monday’s MLB slate. The public loves San Diego as a modest road favorite down in Atlanta. Behind 75 percent of the bets, 87 percent of the money is on the Padres -135. The split in those two percentages indicates most of the large bets have been on San Diego as well.
Recreational bettors likely saw the pitching matchup of Yu Darvish vs. rookie Kyle Muller, and didn’t need to see much else. It also probably doesn’t hurt that the Padres have put up 41 runs over their past three games. The public is going to keep riding this scorching hot lineup, and we can’t blame them. We’re on the Padres, as well. To be fair, the line has moved significantly since DK published these numbers this morning.
MLB: Angels @ A’s over 8
Nothing the public loves more than a good over. Bettors are pretty evenly split on the total for Game 6 of the NBA Finals, but not here. 76 percent of the bets and a whopping 98 percent of the money are on the over 8 in Oakland. This one is interesting since Shohei Ohtani will be on the mound.
Ohtani is must-see TV for baseball fans right now, but clearly bettors trust his bat more than his arm. He did get roughed up in his second-to-last outing before the break, giving up seven earned runs in less than an inning against the Yankees. The last time he faced Oakland he struggled with his control. as well. We’re going over in this one, too.
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