Andrew Ortenberg
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It’s that special time of year when most of the major sports are in action. It’s a lot, and we’re grateful for it. There are plenty of crucial contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the ‘books, with the Seahawks leading the way on Monday.
NFL: Seahawks -110 @ Washington
We’ve got an interesting NFC matchup for Monday Night Football. And despite how they’ve looked recently, the betting public is ready to go back to the Seahawks. Oddsmakers have this game as virtually even, and the majority of bettors are siding with Seattle. 68 percent of the bets and 66 percent of the public money are coming in on the Seahawks’ money line at -110, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
The public usually likes to chase momentum, but not here. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are at rock bottom, while Washington has started to turn their season around with some impressive wins. We’re fading the public and going with Ron Rivera’s Washington team. Additionally, the public is also leaning toward the under, which is also pretty rare to see for a big primetime game.
NBA: Wizards -3 @ Spurs
Turning our attention to the NBA now. The overwhelming public side of the nine-game slate on Monday is the Wizards as a short road favorite over the Spurs. Washington has been a pleasant surprise this season, but this could be a straight fade of San Antonio more than anything else. Whatever the case, 88 percent of the bets and a near-unanimous 98 percent of the public money are laying it with the Wizards.
The Spurs have lost six of their last seven games, and are just 5-13 overall on the year. Washington is coming off a road win over the Mavericks, and that was with Luka Doncic back in the lineup. We’re agreeing with the public on this one and backing Bradley Beal.
NBA: Cavaliers @ Mavericks over 207.5
Nothing the public loves more than a good over, right? Elsewhere on the NBA slate, bettors are expecting lots of points in Dallas. This one is interesting, since the Cavs aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut and have tended to play in lower scoring games this season. Nevertheless, 87 percent of the bets and 89 percent of the public money are on the over here.
This could have to do with both sides getting healthier, as Doncic just returned for the Mavs while the Cavaliers just got back stud rookie Evan Mobley. A couple of Cleveland’s most recent contests have been higher scoring, as well. We agree that this one will eclipse the low total of 207.5.
NCAAB: Illinois -5 vs Notre Dame
Time to take a look at the amateur hoops slate. One of the best games on a small-ish college basketball slate is this showdown between Illinois and Notre Dame. The Fighting Illini are a modest favorite, but bettors certainly don’t see it that way. 91 percent of the bet and a whopping 99 percent of the public money are laying the points with Illinois here.
This one is interesting, since the team just played a game against UT Rio Grande Valley that was much too close for comfort. But at the same time Kofi Cockburn has returned to the lineup, and has resumed dominating. Cockburn had a career-high 38 points in that game, and it’s hard to blame the public for getting excited about the dominant big man. We’re excited about him, too, and are laying it with Illinois.
NHL: Canadiens -140 vs Canucks
Wrapping things up now with some hockey. It looks like the public is going to continue to fade the Canucks until they figure things out, and it’s not too hard to see why. Vancouver has lost nine of their last 10 games, and the offense has gone ice cold (no pun intended). Accordingly, 67 percent of the bets and 91 percent of the public money are on Montreal’s money line here.
The gap between those two percentages indicates that the large volume bets have been on the Canadiens as well. Montreal is just 6-15-2, so it’s funny to see them getting hammered like this. The Habs did just pick up a 6-3 road win over Pittsburgh their last time out, so we’re backing them too.
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