Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got some nice NBA, MLB and NHL action to report on Thursday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big playoff games, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Nets leading the way.
NBA: Nets +3.5 @ Bucks
The Nets have gone up 2-0 in their series against the Bucks, yet oddsmakers have Milwaukee as a clear favorite here. The public objects. It’s not too often that a public underdog headlines this column, but on the other hand it’s not too often the Nets are an underdog. 83 percent of the bets and 83 percent of the money are on Brooklyn plus the points here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
Given what we’ve seen in the first two games, it’s understandable. The Nets have dominated. But this is a must-win game for the Bucks with their backs up against the wall. The spread in Game 2 was virtually even, so this number really isn’t out of sync. Milwaukee’s stars were all atrocious last time out, and they should come out with an all-out effort for Game 3. We’re fading the public and taking the Bucks.
NBA: Jazz -3.5 vs. Clippers
In the nightcap of Thursday’s slate, bettors are gravitating toward the Jazz. Utah came from behind to win Game 1 over the Clippers, and the public thinks they’ll carry that momentum over here. 61 percent of the bets and 70 percent of the money are on the Jazz at home in Game 2.
Clearly bettors aren’t expecting a bounce back from Pandemic P, aka Paul George. After his 4/17 performance in Game 1, it’s hard to blame them. The Jazz managed to win Game 1 despite starting the game shooting 3/22 from the floor, and their offense is just much better right now. We’re taking the Jazz as well.
NBA: Clippers at Jazz over 222.0
The real public side in this game though is on the over. Nothing the public loves more than an over, especially in a big game. 79 percent of the bets and a whopping 95 percent of the money are on the over for Game 2. The big split in those percentages indicates there have been some very large wagers on the over as well.
Game 1 finished almost exactly at the posted total as there were 221 points. But that was despite both teams shooting poorly. The Jazz shot just 40.7 from the field. Jordan Clarkson was 6/18 and Joe Ingles was 3/12. George likely won’t be *quite* as bad as he was in Game 1. Both offenses should improve, so it follows logically there will be more points than last time. We like the over as well, and in fact it’s a three-star play for us.
MLB: White Sox +102 vs. Blue Jays
Looking at the baseball slate now. Oddsmakers have this AL clash as nearly even, but bettors certainly don’t see it that way. The White Sox are actually a slight underdog, but bettors are flocking nonetheless just like with the Nets. 70 percent of the bets and 83 percent of the money are on Chicago at +102.
Nothing obvious jumps out about this one. Toronto has an edge on the mound here, with Hyun-Jin Ryu facing off against Dallas Keuchel. Outside of one tough start against a red-hot Astros lineup recently, Ryu has been fantastic. Keuchel has been middling, and the Blue Jays have the second-highest OPS in the league. We’re fading the public and backing Toronto here.
NHL: Avalanche @ Golden Knights over 5.5
See what we mean about the public and their overs? There’s only one playoff hockey game on tonight, and bettors are expecting a shootout. 67 percent of the bets and 75 percent of the money are on the over 5.5 here in Vegas for this pivotal Game 6.
Vegas’ offense has been trending upward, and both teams have elite power play units. Colorado’s top line has been a big disappointment the past couple of games, which has deflated this line. Oddsmakers have adjusted too much, so we agree there’s value on the over 5.5 in this spot.
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