Andrew Ortenberg
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We have plenty of MLB games on offer and we also have some NFL preseason action, so there’s still a lot to pore over even with most sports off. Don’t worry, real football is right around the corner. There are a lot of big contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Brewers leading the way on Friday.
MLB: Brewers -135 @ Twins
The big public MLB side on Friday (not counting games with truly lopsided odds) is the Brewers. Milwaukee has been hot lately, and they’re 25-11 since the all-star break, so bettors are looking to ride that momentum like they often do. A total of 88 percent of both the bets and the public money are on Milwaukee as a modest road favorite here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
This might be a fade of the Twins just as much as it is an endorsement of the Brewers, as Minnesota has fallen to last place in the AL Central. The Twins are also sending 35-year-old journeyman Andrew Albers to the mound for his first start in the big leagues since the 2017 season, so it’s hard to argue too much. We’re riding with the public on this one and taking the Brewers as well.
MLB: Astros @ Rangers over 9.0
Elsewhere in the baseball slate, bettors are expecting fireworks in this showdown for the state of Texas. There is nothing the public loves more than a good over. A total of 90 percent of the bets and a nearly unanimous 99 percent of the public money are on the over 9.0. That’s pretty overwhelming, and I think I know why.
Houston has one of the best offenses in the league, and the Rangers will have rookie Glenn Otto on the mound for his first career start. That being said, Texas has one of the *weakest* lineups in the league, especially so after trading away Joey Gallo. We don’t see the Astros doing enough to have this one hit double digits by themselves, so we’re fading the public with a play on the under.
NFL preseason: Chiefs -4 vs Vikings
Let’s pivot to exhibition NFL action now as we enter the final week of the preseason. The Chiefs are surely going to be a heavy public side during the regular season, so why wouldn’t bettors get a head start now? 70 percent of the bets and 80 percent of the public money are laying the points with Kansas City on Friday night.
This one likely has a lot to do with the fact that Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the starters are going to get some real run. Mahomes played terribly last week and the Chiefs still managed to beat the Cardinals by 7. We think Mahomes and co. will be highly motivated to put that poor performance behind them, and come out firing. We’re backing the Chiefs on the spread, as well.
NFL preseason: Patriots -3.5 @ Giants
We are wrapping things up with the other big preseason spread side later in the weekend. The Patriots are a popular road favorite over the Giants on Sunday. A total of 72 percent of the bets and 88 percent of the public money are laying more than a field goal with New England. The big gap between those two percentages indicates there have been some large volume bets on the Pats as well. Does that mean New England is the sharp side, as well? Quite possibly. Be sure to check back on our ‘NFL picks‘ page a little later for our thoughts on this game.
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