Andrew Ortenberg
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The NFL is back in full swing, and today we’re getting our first look at the Week 4 bet splits. There are a lot of crucial contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Cincinnati Bengals leading the way.
Don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for all of college football’s biggest games this weekend!
NFL: Bengals -7.5 vs Jaguars
I don’t think we’ll see the Bengals as a favorite of more than a touchdown many times this season. But that’s what playing the Jaguars will do for you. Urban Meyer’s first season as an NFL coach certainly hasn’t gone as planned, and bettors are now lining up to fade Jacksonville. 79% of the bets and 90% of the public money are laying the points with the Bengals, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
Cincy is also coming off a big upset win over the Steelers, which certainly helped their market perception. The Jags looked like they were going to cover the spread for the first time last week, before melting down in the second half against the Cardinals. They’ve fallen a long way since being 3-point road favorites in Week 1. We don’t want any piece of them either, we’re backing the Bengals as well.
NFL: Lions +3 at Bears
This one is very interesting. We don’t see the public gravitate toward underdogs too often, and especially not the Lions. If that’s not an indictment of the current state of the Bears, I don’t know what is. Detroit is 0-3 and widely considered one of the worst teams in the league, yet 81% of the bets and 88% of the public money are grabbing the points with them in Week 4.
Chicago is coming off one of the ugliest losses we’ve seen in quite some time, where they had to fight tooth and nail just to gain a first down against the Browns. The Lions on the other hand have looked a bit better than expected despite being winless, and nearly pulled off a stunning upset of the Ravens last week. Again we want absolutely no part of the Bears either, so we’re plugging our noses and rolling with Detroit also.
NFL: Chiefs -7 at Eagles
On the flip side, the Chiefs are quite often a public team. They’ve been burning their backers lately by barely covering any spreads, but that isn’t scaring anyone away in this spot. Kansas City is just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 contests, but even still support for them here is nearly unanimous. Bettors are expecting an angry Patrick Mahomes coming off two straight losses to perform his best, and it’s hard to argue too much with that.
Currently 93% of the bets and a whopping 98% of the public money is on the Chiefs. The public also just saw the Eagles get absolutely smoked by the Cowboys on national television on Monday night. Kansas City has slipped up recently, and their most recent loss to the Chargers is likely the kick in the behind they needed. We’re banking on a bounceback from the Chiefs as well.
NFL: Cardinals at Rams over 55
The big public total of Week 4 is the over in this NFC West rivalry game. Bettors often like to root for shootouts in the week’s biggest games, and this showdown is easily one of the most exciting matchups of the slate. Both offenses have looked electric at times this season, and as a result bets are pouring in on the over. 83% of the bets and 90% of the public money is on the over 55 in Los Angeles.
Matthew Stafford has unlocked a new dimension to this Rams offense, and this past week they dropped 34 points on the Buccaneers’ stout defense. On the other side, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ offense seem to have taken a big step forward with all their new weapons. Arizona has put up at least 31 in all 3 of their games. We’re expecting a shootout in this one as well.
NFL: Buccaneers -7 @ Patriots
The Bucs just got humbled by the Rams last week, but the public is going right back to Tom Brady in one of the most highly anticipated games of the year. Recreational bettors know who they like in this epic matchup between Brady and his former coach Bill Belichick. Speaking of getting humbled, Mac Jones had his ‘welcome to the NFL’ moment last week in an ugly loss to the Saints, so that might have something to do with these splits as well.
Whatever the case, 93% of the bets and 97% of the public money is laying almost a touchdown with the Bucs for Sunday Night Football.
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