Andrew Ortenberg
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What a wonderful time of year. All four of the major professional sports are playing, and there’s college football going on as well. It’s a lot, and we’re grateful for it. There are a lot of crucial contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the ‘books, with the Akron Zips leading the way on Tuesday.
CFB: Akron +20.5 vs Ball State
Now here’s something we don’t see every day, a public underdog. Even more shockingly, this is actually the second time Akron has been featured in this column as an underdog. The public was all over them as a massive underdog for their game against Ohio State back when the Buckeyes were struggling mightily. Now Tuesday night MACtion is back, and bettors are grabbing the points with the Zips.
76 percent of the bets and 71 percent of the public money are on Akron tonight, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us. This might be more the public just thinking Ball State isn’t good enough to cover a spread this large, rather than an endorsement of the Zips. Only one of Ball State’s four wins this season have come by more than 12 points, so we’re backing the public here and going with the underdog.
NBA: Heat -2.5 @ Mavericks
Looking at the NBA slate now, the Heat are the big public side on Tuesday. The public often likes to chase momentum, and Miami is hot right now (now pun intended). They’ve won four games in a row, and five of six overall. Their last time out, they beat the Grizzlies by 26 on the road. Accordingly, 82 percent of the bets and a whopping 95 percent of the public money are now on the Heat as a short road favorite here.
The gap in those two percentages indicates there have been some large volume bets on Miami as well. Dallas is a bit banged up in the frontcourt right now, as they’ll be without both Kristaps Porzingis and Maxi Kleber, which could also help explain this. We can’t fade the Heat right now either, we’re taking Miami as well.
MLB: Braves @ Astros over 8.5
Turning our attention to the World Series now. Nothing the public loves more than a good over. This isn’t the first time the public has been on the over in this series, and they’re going right back to the well for this high-stakes Game 6. The splits on the money line are pretty balanced, but 62 percent of the bets and 69 percent of the public money are coming in on the over.
Games 3 and 4 were pretty low scoring, but there was a 14-run explosion in Game 5. That’s what is freshest in everybody’s minds entering Tuesday night. We’re fading the public on this one and going under the total. Also be sure to check out our expert roundtable for Game 6, with each writer providing a best bet for the game!
NHL: Rangers -135 @ Canucks
Wrapping things up with some hockey now. There’s a nice big NHL slate on Tuesday, and there’s a big public side brewing in one of the late games. As we saw with the Heat, the public often gravitates to these short road favorites. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing with the Rangers. 81 percent of the bets and 82 percent of the public money are on New York’s money line at -135 over Vancouver.
The Rangers are hot right now, having won six of their last seven games, so this one isn’t too hard to understand. Meanwhile, Vancouver is on a three-game losing streak. The Canucks are getting nothing going on offense and have been terrible on the powerplay, so we’re agreeing with the public on this one.
Don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every NFL game this season!
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