Andrew Ortenberg
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We have plenty of MLB games to report while we also have a ton of Olympics action, so there’s a lot to pore over despite most sports being off. There are a lot of big contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with Olympic basketball and Team USA leading the way.
Olympic basketball: Team USA -23 vs. Czech Republic
Team USA embarrassed themselves in exhibition games, and then again in their first game of pool play when they blew a lead and lost to France. Despite being the home team, American bettors then undrestandably became mixed on them. It go to the point that bet splits were pretty much even for their game against Iran. After Team USA dominated Iran and easily covered that 40-point spread, the public is starting to come back around.
81 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the money are on Team USA to cover the large 23-point spread, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us. As they showed against Iran, they’re still capable of blowing out inferior teams. After that 120-66 demolition, you can’t blame bettors for getting excited. Make sure you check out our ‘Olympics betting‘ tab for all our picks on the Tokyo Games.
Olympic basketball: France -26 vs. Iran
Before Team USA takes on the Czechs on Saturday, the public has an even heavier liking for France on Friday. After the French bested the Americans, bettors flocked to bet them -9.5 against Czech Republic. Rudy Gobert and co. delivered once again with a 97-77 victory, and now the public is going right back to the well.
86 percent of the bets and 91 percent of the money are on France as a 26-point favorite here. Even if they hadn’t looked very impressive while going 2-0, the public might be looking to fade Iran anyway after they lost by 54 to Team USA.
MLB: Orioles @ Tigers over 9.5
Looking at the baseball slate now, there’s nothing the public likes more than a good over. That’s certainly the case for this MLB Thursday. For starters, bettors are expecting a shootout in Detroit. 73 percent of the bets and a whopping 96 percent of the money are on the over 9.5 here. The split in those two percentages indicates there have been some very large bets on the over in terms of volume.
This one is a little interesting, since the public usually saves their heaviest overs for games involving two teams with lots of starpower. The Orioles and Tigers probably don’t qualify as national brands, but their offenses are a bit better than you might think. Bettors probably saw 31 runs scored in Detroit’s most recent game against Minnesota, and didn’t need to see anything more. The starting pitching matchup is middling and these are two of the worst bullpens in baseball, so we’ve got to agree with the public here. We’re taking the over as well.
MLB: Rockies @ Padres over 8.0
See what I mean about the public and their overs? In the nightcap of this slate, the public is lining up behind the over once again. Like with the game we just talked about, it appears bettors are chasing recent high scoring contests. The Rockies just played in back to back games with 15 total runs scored against the Angels, so a total of eight was able to lure in a lot of people.
79 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the money are on the over eight here. But there are a lot of differences from Colorado’s last two games here. For starters Rockies pitcher Kyle Freeland has been fantastic recently, giving up only eight total runs over his past six outings. His last time out he completely shutdown an elite Dodgers offense, limiting them to only one run over seven innings. Padres starter Joe Musgrove has been fantastic this year with a 1.01 WHIP, and the game is being played at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. We’re fading the public and taking the under here.
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