Andrew Ortenberg
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Baseball is finally back, and we’ve also got some nice NBA and NHL action on Thursday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big games, which always attracts some big public sides. Will bettors be lucky this time around? Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Warriors leading the way.
NBA: Warriors -9 @ Cavaliers
The public loves to lock onto a handful of elite NBA teams and bet them seemingly every day, but we’ve got a different situation leading the way Friday. This bet seems like a fade of the Cavaliers more than anything else. 85 percent of the bets and a whopping 94 percent of the money are laying the points with the Warriors here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
The public saw the Warriors blow the Thunder out by 38 in their most recent game, but then again that was the Thunder. The Cavs have been more competitive than most people realize, and they’re coming off a win over Charlotte. When you throw in the fact that the Warriors have stark home/road splits and are just 10-18 on the road this season, there’s no way we could lay nearly double digits. We’re fading the public and taking the underdog here.
NBA: Suns -12.5 vs. Kings
This spread has really ballooned out. Late last night this game was Suns -9, which is when we advised you to take it in our mega parlay for today’s action. It pays to read Pickswise early if you want to get the best of the number. In any case, 82 percent of the bets and 94 percent of the money are laying the double digits with Phoenix here.
Clearly, bettors weren’t too scared by that 3.5-point line shift in the Suns’ direction. The Suns have arguably been the best team in the league the past couple of months, going 31-7 in their last 38. The Kings on the other hand have lost eight in a row, so this one isn’t too hard to understand. Don’t overthink this one, we’re going with the Suns as well.
MLB: White Sox -1.5 vs. Indians
Looking at the baseball slate now, the public is hammering Chicago. Everybody saw Carlos Rodon throw a no-hitter against Cleveland last night, and they’re going right back to the well on Thursday. 76 percent of the bets and 97 percent of the money are on Chicago’s run line -1.5 here.
Additionally, 63 percent of the bets and 70 percent of the money are on their money line at -150. The Indians have a solid rotation, even after trading away Mike Clevinger, but they just can’t hit. We’re not just saying that because of the no-hitter, they only scored two runs in the second game of this series and only three in the first. Until their offense wakes up, we’ve got to fade them as well.
MLB: Dodgers -1.5 vs. Rockies
With the way they’ve looked so far, the Dodgers are likely going to be a staple of this column. They’ve been playing like a super-team as they defend their World Series title, and look nearly unbeatable. As such, it’s not too surprising that 87 percent of the bets and 86 percent of the money are on their run line here.
That being said, while 75 percent of the money line bets are on Los Angeles, 59 percent of the money line money wagered is actually on the Rockies at +235. That would seemingly suggest there have been a few large wagers on Colorado to win. Nonetheless the Dodgers have won nine of their past 10 with seven of those wins coming by multiple runs, so we like them on the run line too.
NHL: Penguins -1.5 vs. Flyers
Looking at the NHL now, the public is all over Pittsburgh. 80 percent of the bets and 90 percent of the money are backing them -1.5 on the puck line against Philadelphia. Additionally, 85 percent of the bets and 94 percent of the money are on their money line at -167.
Philly is just 2-6 in their last eight games while Pittsburgh has won three in a row, so this is yet another momentum play from recreational bettors. This will be the first game for Jeff Carter as a Penguin after his trade from the Kings, which will give their offense a big boost. We’re taking the Penguins as well at significant plus-money on the puck line.
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