Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
We’ve got some nice NBA and NHL action on Wednesday, and we’re already looking ahead to the start of March Madness later this week for college basketball. There are a lot of big games, which always attracts some big public sides. Will bettors be lucky this time around? Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books.
CBB: Michigan State -2 vs. UCLA
This game isn’t until tomorrow, but it’s worth taking a look at anyway as the volume for these NCAA Tournament games is going to be off the charts. A whopping 88 percent of the bets and 89 percent of the money are on Michigan State to cover as short favorites against UCLA in the First Four, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
Tom Izzo vs. Mick Cronin in what many are calling the best First Four game in tournament history. The Bruins are coming off a solid season but they collapsed down the stretch, losing their last four games. Most of their wins before that were by extremely close margins, so I think that collapse was only a matter of time as it was unsustainable. The Spartans on the other hand picked things up after a slow start, and are playing their best ball right now. For those reasons and more we’re rolling with Izzo, and it’s one of our ‘college basketball best bets‘ as well.
NBA: Boston Celtics -8.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers
The public often likes to fade the Cavaliers, and that’s once again the case on Wednesday. 86 percent of the bets and 90 percent of the money are on the Celtics minus the points on the road in Cleveland. The Cavs have lost four games in a row, and the last three by at least 15 points, which is fresh in the public’s minds.
The Celtics on the other hand are 5-2 in their last seven games, with the only two losses in that span coming to the Jazz and Nets. Cleveland is still really banged up, and they just don’t have the offense to compete right now. We’re taking Boston as road chalk as well.
NBA: Chicago Bulls -1.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Bulls aren’t exactly a staple of this column, but they’ve looked great the past couple of games, and there’s nothing the public likes more than riding a hot team. 83 percent of the bets and 93 percent of the money are on the Bulls laying a couple of points at home against the Spurs here.
Chicago has a lot of momentum, as they’re coming off back to back wins of at least 20 points. The Spurs are 2-3 in their last five games, with the two wins coming against the lowly Pistons and Magic. When San Antonio has had to play competitive teams recently it hasn’t gone too well, like in their recent 35-point loss to the 76ers. We like the Bulls here too, and it’s one of our ‘NBA best bets‘ on Wednesday.
NBA: Golden State Warriors -12.5 @ Houston Rockets
The public isn’t about to stop fading the Rockets any time soon, and you can’t really blame them. Houston started the year off 11-10, and have now somehow managed to lose 17 games in a row. Bettors are flocking to bet against them each night, as most of their recent losses haven’t even been competitive.
77 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the money are on the Warriors laying double digits here. That split between 77 and 92 would indicate there have been some large bets on Golden State. The whales are circling. The Rockets are getting Christian Wood back finally here, but that’s not enough to scare anybody away. They’ll still be without a good chunk of their roster here including John Wall, Eric Gordon, and Victor Oladipo, so we’ve got to fade them as well.
NHL: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 vs. San Jose Sharks
Looking at the hockey board now, the public is gravitating toward the Golden Knights on Wednesday. 82 percent of the bets and a near-unanimous 96 percent of the money are on the Golden Knights’ puck line here. Vegas is a perfect 4-0 against the Sharks this season, so bettors are going right back to the well here.
The Golden Knights have won three in a row and while the Sharks have won three of four, no one seems to care. That might be because two of those wins came against lowly Anaheim. The Golden Knights only won the first game of this set 2-1, but in their previous meeting with the Sharks it was a 4-0 blowout. We like the Golden Knights as well on the puck line at a bit of plus-money, and it’s one of our ‘NHL best bets‘ on Wednesday.
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