Ricky Dimon
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It is a busy Saturday in sports, as we have have plenty of golf (the AT&T Pro-Am at Pebble Beach) and tennis (the Australian Open) in addition to NBA, NHL, and college basketball action. Let’s take a look at where the betting money is going so far.
NBA: Utah Jazz -6 vs. Miami Heat
Per Draft Kings, a whopping 93 percent of the money is coming in on the Jazz -6. And that’s not because one or two people are throwing down six-figures on Utah or anything like that. No, a consistently flow of bets are backing the Jazz to ease past the Heat (87 percent of them, to be exact). Bettors are also seeing good value on the money line, with 84 percent of those best on Utah compared to just 16 percent on Miami.
We also like Donovan Mitchell and company, even putting them in both of our daily NBA parlays. Miami has won four in a row, but keep in mind those victories have come against New York (twice), Washington, and Houston. Utah is 11-2 at home this season and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 at home.
NBA: Stephen Curry Over 5.5 three-pointers made
Bettors’ favorite player prop bet today is Stephen Curry to drain more than 5.5 three-pointers when the Golden State Warriors host the Brooklyn Nets. They can even get him at plus money (+115 at DraftKings) to do so. Other popular prop plays are Kevin Durant to score more than 28.5 points in that same game and Jimmy Butler to combine for more than 33.5 points, rebounds, and assists in the Miami-Utah game.
Curry going crazy is always a good call, especially against an opponent that has no interest in defense like the Nets. We have him at +320 to score at least 40 points in our Warriors-Nets same game parlay. He is averaging more than 40 over Golden State’s past four games, a stretch that includes one 57-point eruption.
NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 vs. Florida Panthers
The public was also all over Tampa Bay on Thursday and the books won big, as Florida pulled off a 5-2 upset. But that result is not about to make punters shy away from the Bolts two days later. A whopping 89 percent is backing Tampa Bay on the money line, compared to just 11 percent for Florida. The puck-line story is similar (88 percent to 12 percent).
We aren’t going to argue with those choices, although the safer play on the money line is probably advisable. Look for goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to bounce back from Thursday’s subpar performance. He is too good not to. After all, Vasilevskiy is 8-2-1 with a 2.00 GAA and .929 SVP this season.
NHL: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Dallas Stars Over 5.5
Bettors also like the over in Hurricanes vs. Stars. It is a modest total at 5.5 for two teams that are tied for ninth in the NHL in scoring at 3.36 goals per game. As it stands this afternoon, 70 percent of the bets are backing the over in this contest, good for 74 percent of the money.
We are also tipping the over. Carolina puts a heavy volume of shots on goal (third in the league in that department), while Dallas’ 33.3 power-play conversion percentage is good for third-best in the NHL. In three head-to-head meetings already in 2020-21, the two clubs have combined for seven power-play goals.
NCAAB: Gonzaga Bulldogs -16 vs. San Francisco Dons
Bettors love everything about this game. The Zags are getting 82 percent of the ATS bets and 84 percent of the ATS money. The over is being hammered, as well. Although “only” 66 percent of the bets (still a lot!) are on Over 156, 93 percent of the money is coming in that direction. That means at least a few punters have huge stakes on this particular play.
Gonzaga is beating opponents by 20 points per game this season. San Francisco is no exception to that rule, having lost by 23 in the first head-to-head matchup. Is home-field advantage for the Dons going to change anything? Doubtful. Bet against the best team in the nation at your own peril…but based on where the bets have gone, that is advice you already know!
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