Andrew Ortenberg
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Well, we made it to the biggest betting day of the year. The Super Bowl is officially here, basketball and hockey are in full swing and baseball is right around the corner. It’s a lot, and we’re grateful for it. There are some big contests coming up, which always create some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Super Bowl leading the way on Sunday.
Super Bowl 56: Over 48.5
The public is fairly split on this year’s Super Bowl. Nothing lopsided in either direction. Slightly more people are leaning toward the Bengals on the spread, as 56.2% of the bets have come in on Cincy +4, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us. 52.1% of the handle is on Cincinnati as well. The bigger public side is on the over, though.
So far, 58.4% of the bets and 58.1% of the public money wagered on the total is on the over 48.5. More people are gravitating toward the Bengals on the money line as well. With 63% of both the bets and handle coming in on Cincy +170. It’s not too late to check out our full game preview for Rams vs Bengals.
Super Bowl MVP: Aaron Donald +1400
DraftKings is also giving us a peek at the bet splits for Super Bowl MVP, and they’re interesting. It’s usually a quarterback award, but recreational bettors are actually flocking to a defensive player longshot. Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald leads all players in both percentage of bets and handle at 17.9 and 19.2 respectively.
The public money pouring in on Donald has caused his odds to drop from around 20/1 to 14/1. Cincinnati’s offensive line has looked porous in these playoffs, so it’s certainly believable that Donald would dominate. Joe Burrow is right behind him at +225 (14.4% of bets), followed by Cooper Kupp at +600 (11.3% of bets) and Matthew Stafford at +100 (6% of bets). My colleague Ricky Dimon recently took a look at the Super Bowl MVP betting landscape.
Super Bowl props: Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown scorer -190
We can’t talk Super Bowl without talking props. And the most bet player prop of Super Bowl 56 is an interesting one. It’s Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown scorer at -190. The public is never afraid to lay significant juice, why would that change with the Super Bowl? The second most-bet prop is also chalky, it’s Joe Burrow over 1.5 passing touchdowns at a cool -200.
Third place is mildly surprising, as it’s on Ja’Marr Chase. But it’s not his receiving prop, it’s actually the over on his rushing prop of 3.5 rushing yards! Clearly bettors are expecting a jet sweep or two. Fourth place belongs to the opening kickoff to not be a touchback at -110. Andrew Wilsher just broke down the first kickoff touchback market, so check out his piece to see if he agrees with the public here.
NBA: Timberwolves -6 vs Pacers
Of course, the Super Bowl isn’t the only sporting event happening on Sunday. We have a couple of NBA games first, and one of them has a heavy public side. At the beginning of the year not too many people would have expected the Timberwolves to be a public team, but we’ve seen it a few times recently.
So far, 73% of the bets and 76% of the public money are laying the points with them on the road over the Pacers. This is probably more a fade of Indiana than anything else. The Pacers blew it up at the deadline, trading Damontas Sabonis and Caris LeVert, and they’ve been one of the worst teams in the league all year. Be sure to check out our free picks on the side and total for every NBA game over at our NBA page.
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