Andrew Ortenberg
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March Madness is officially full steam ahead, and with the NCAA Tournament now underway we’ll be bringing you a special edition of our usual public money update each day. With an event this large betting volume will be off the charts, and the public can actually move markets this time of year. It’s important to keep track of what the heavy public sides are, whether you’re looking to tail or fade that movement.
Check out our March Madness hub to stay on top of everything that goes on. Also, be sure to check out our picks on the side and total for every single game in the tournament. But first, let’s dive into what we’re seeing in terms of public trends heading into the second day of the Elite Eight:
Gonzaga -8 vs. USC
USC is coming off back to back dominant wins over Kansas and Oregon, but that clearly wasn’t enough to sway the public’s opinion. That’s likely more due to who they’re playing than anything they’ve done wrong, as nobody can bring themselves to fade Gonzaga. 69 percent of the bets and 68 percent of the money are laying the points with the Bulldogs in the first game of Tuesday’s action, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
Gonzaga just crushed Oklahoma and Creighton without breaking much of a sweat, and it’s hard to see how even USC’s stout defense will slow down Gonzaga’s historic offense. We can’t fade Gonzaga either, so we’re rolling with the public on this one. For what it’s worth the total on this game is split nearly evenly, with right around 50 percent of the action on both the under and over.
Michigan -7 vs. UCLA
March Madness is often the one time of year we see the public gravitating heavily toward underdogs, but not on Tuesday. In the Elite Eight nightcap, bettors are once again getting chalky and hammering the favorite. 62 percent of the bets and 69 percent of the money are on the Wolverines here over this upstart UCLA team.
The Bruins just knocked off Alabama, but perhaps the public is concerned about the fact that it took the Crimson Tide shooting 11/25 from the free throw line for UCLA to escape with an overtime win. Michigan on the other hand just completely dominated Florida State, controlling that game from start to finish. We see no reason not to go with Michigan here either.
Michigan vs. UCLA over 135.5
The public always loves their overs, and they aren’t switching it up here. 72 percent of the bets and 68 percent of the money are on the over 135.5 in this spot. UCLA’s offense has played well in the tournament, and they did just score 88 points against Alabama, albeit in overtime. The public didn’t need to see anything more than that 88-78 final score to make this decision.
But Michigan just smothered Florida State with their defense, and both of these teams play at very slow paces whereas Alabama plays extremely fast. The last time UCLA played a slower team, in the Round of 32 against Abilene Christian, the final score was 67-47. We think we’re going to see something more like that here, so we’re fading the public on this one and going under.
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