Andrew Ortenberg
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March Madness is officially full steam ahead, and with the NCAA Tournament now underway we’ll be bringing you a special edition of our usual public money update each day. With an event this large betting volume will be off the charts, and the public can actually move markets this time of year. It’s important to keep track of what the heavy public sides are, whether you’re looking to tail or fade that movement.
Check out our March Madness hub to stay on top of everything that goes on. Also, be sure to check out our picks on the side and total for every single game in the tournament. But first, let’s dive into what we’re seeing in terms of public trends heading into the National Championship Game:
Baylor vs. Gonzaga point spread (Gonzaga -4.5)
Oddsmakers opened the Bulldogs as a 4.5-point favorite for the final game of the tournament. So far, the public has been pretty evenly split and there’s no clear lopsided direction on the point spread. So far 59 percent of the bets are laying the points with Gonzaga, but 54 percent of the money wagered is on Baylor plus the points, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
That difference indicates that while a majority of tickets are on Gonzaga, larger wagers are coming in on Baylor. The volume will be very heavy for this game, so this could change over the next 24 hours. But right now there’s no consensus. Considering how good both Baylor and Gonzaga have looked during their respective runs, it’s hard to argue with the indecision. That being said, we’re taking the points here with Baylor in what should be a really tight game.
Baylor vs. Gonzaga total (O/U 159.5)
We’ve got another big split here on the total, this time even more noticeable. 59 percent of the bets are on the over, but 61 percent of the money wagered is on the under 159.5. That’s not too surprising, as recreational bettors often gravitate toward overs, especially in big games. Perhaps your more recreational bettors are hammering the over, while the high-rollers with much larger units like the under.
Gonzaga’s offense is historic, and even when they played a really slow-paced team like UCLA, the total still went flying over. Baylor just played a really slow-paced team as well, and their semifinal game against Houston also soared over. This one has the potential to be an epic shootout, so we’re taking the over.
Baylor vs. Gonzaga money line (+165/-210)
On the money line is where we finally get our clear public side. The public often likes to back favorites on the spread but underdogs on the money line, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing here. 66 percent of the bets and 76 percent of the money are on Baylor at +165 to win it all. Money line underdogs have been cashing left and right all tournament, why not one more in the last game? The public certainly isn’t going to waste one last chance at a big payday, and we can’t blame them.
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