Sam Avellone
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The college football regular season is almost here, which means it is the perfect time to dive into some CFB futures and try to find some value! While there are a few ways to bet futures in college football, not many of them emphasize the importance of every game, every week like win totals.
It can be fairly time-consuming to evaluate the win totals market in college football, and the odds are not nearly as appealing as national title or conference title futures. However, if you consider schedule, returning production, depth, and coaching in your evaluation of each team – there is a good chance you will find a few spots you consider to be of value.
Luckily for you, I have gone through that process already and will provide you with my favorite win total in each of the 4 power conferences, as well as 1 from the Group of Five. With the college football season rapidly approaching, be sure to check Pickswise frequently for more college football picks. Let’s dive in!
ACC
Miami Hurricanes over 9 wins (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings at the time of publishing
I certainly have concerns about coach Mario Cristobal’s game management, but there is reason for optimism this year in regards to the Miami Hurricanes. Cristobal maintained both coordinators after finishing the season top 40 in opponent-adjusted efficiency on both sides of the ball, and he filled holes on the roster with a plethora of talented transfers in the off-season. The additions of Cam Ward, Damien Martinez and Samuel Brown are likely to improve Miami’s offense – a unit that has desperately sought consistency outside of Xavier Restrepo.
Meanwhile, the returning production of Rueben Bain Jr., Francisco Mauigoa and Wesley Bissainthe gives the defensive front 7 a great foundation. The secondary will look very different with James Williams and Kamren Kinchens now in the NFL, but the Hurricanes won’t face many quarterbacks that will be able to test them vertically. In fact, Miami’s schedule appears to be extremely favorable. The Hurricanes do not leave Florida until October, and they avoid regular season clashes with Clemson and NC State. They will benefit from playing Virginia Tech and Florida State at home, and will not play on the road in consecutive weeks at any point of the season.
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Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers over 5.5 wins (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings at the time of publishing
The Hoosiers won just 3 games last year and have only 9 combined wins in the last 3 seasons, but this year may look very different with all the new faces in Indiana. The Hoosiers hired Curt Cignetti away from James Madison after he led the Dukes to a 52-9 overall record in his tenure with the program, including 19-5 in its first 2 seasons in the FBS. Cignetti brought plenty of his staff members with him, as well as a slew of transfers on both sides of the ball including Elijah Sarratt – who PFF graded a top 10 receiver nationally for the Dukes last season. Throwing to him will be former Ohio University quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who figures to fit seamlessly into Cignetti’s zone read offense.
Indiana’s schedule looks quite favorable, as the Hoosiers project to be favored in all 3 of their non-conference games and as many as 3 or 4 of their conference games. Furthermore, the Hoosiers avoid playing road games in consecutive weeks at any point in the season, and will benefit from bye weeks before their home game against Nebraska and road game at Ohio State. I cannot help but see a path to 7 or 8 wins for the Hoosiers if Cignetti hits the ground running in Bloomington, which is likely given the fact that he has never had a losing record as a college football head coach of close to 15 years – an impressive feat no matter the level of competition.
Don’t miss our 2024 Heisman Trophy winner predictions, with our expert picking a longshot at 100/1 odds!
Big 12
Colorado Buffaloes under 5.5 wins (+120)
Odds available at DraftKings at the time of publishing
Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes opened last season 3-0 before losing 8 of their last 9. Shedeur Sanders was under constant duress in the pocket behind an offensive line that yielded the 2nd-most sacks in the country, and Colorado’s defense could not stop anyone. In fact, the Buffaloes were outside the top 120 in scoring defense and total defense, allowing close to 35 points and over 450 yards per game. Deion brought in a ton of transfers on both sides of the ball in an attempt to improve productivity and efficiency around Shedeur and Travis Hunter, but I question the talent of the roster depth and if it is enough to survive the rigors of Colorado’s schedule in its first year in the Big 12.
The Buffaloes start the season with 3 non-conference games that are far from guaranteed wins, and 3 of their first 5 games will be played on the road. Additionally, Colorado will play the top 4 teams in the Big 12 per Vegas odds to win the conference. Given the uncertainty of the offensive line and defense, I project Colorado to be just shy of the 4-win mark this season – making plus-money on under 5.5 too valuable to ignore.
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SEC
Georgia Bulldogs under 10.5 wins (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings at the time of publishing
Georgia undoubtedly has one of the strongest and deepest rosters in college football, and the Bulldogs will almost certainly be seeking revenge after being left out of the College Football Playoff last year. However, Georgia’s schedule appears to be much more difficult this season than it was last season – a year in which the Bulldogs regressed in sacks, tackles for loss, run defense and red zone defense. In fact, Georgia was outside the top 120 in opposing red zone conversion rate in 2023, compared to being in the top 2 in 2021 and 2022.
The Bulldogs open the season with a neutral-site game against Clemson in Atlanta before beginning conference play with 2 true road games at Kentucky and Alabama. Speaking of road games, the Bulldogs also play Texas and Ole Miss on the road. Their home games are a bit more favorable, but they welcome Auburn immediately following their road trip to Tuscaloosa, Tennessee immediately following their trip to Oxford, and end the season with Georgia Tech – all 3 of whom should have much better offenses this season compared to last. Georgia has the longest active regular-season winning streak entering this season, but this could be the year the Bulldogs drop a couple of games due to strength of schedule and depth concerns in the secondary while still qualifying for the College Football Playoff as a 10-win team. At plus-money odds, the under is worth a look.
Read our college football expert’s full SEC predictions and best bets, breaking down each of the main contenders
Group of Five
Tulane Green Wave under 8 wins (-105)
Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing
The Willie Fritz era is over in Tulane and quarterback Michael Pratt now plays for the Green Bay Packers. Replacing Fritz is Jon Sumrall, who led Troy to a 23-5 record in 2 seasons. There is not much returning production, but Sumrall will have a few of Fritz’s returning pieces on both sides of the ball like Makhi Hughes, Jesus Machado and Patrick Jenkins, as well as talented transfers like Mario Williams and Ty Thompson. Unfortunately, the schedule is fairly difficult for a team with so many new faces on the staff and roster.
The Green Wave should open the season 1-0 with a win over SE Louisiana, but they will welcome Kansas State in Week 2, travel to Oklahoma to play the Sooners in Week 3, and then travel to Louisiana to begin conference play against the Ragin’ Cajuns – who will be off a bye. Following the Louisiana game, Tulane will have 2 more games until their first week off. After the mid-October bye, the Green Wave have a showdown with Rice before their second back-to-back road trip of the season – this time at North Texas and Charlotte. Finally, the season wraps up with a game against Memphis, who many consider the class of the AAC and potentially the Group of 5. I see a scenario where Tulane starts the season 1-3, which means the Green Wave would have to win out to go over their regular season win total. Simply put, I do not see that happening given how much returning production teams like USF, Rice, UAB and Memphis have.
