Ricky Dimon
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There is no rest for the weary when it comes to college football, and the current midweek slate continues on Thursday with a pair of contests in Conference USA. It includes this showdown between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 8:00 pm ET on ESPNU. Also be sure to check out our full Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech predictions.
Louisiana Tech ML (+188)
Under 60.5 (-110)
Tyre Shelton over 51.5 rushing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +665
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you choose. That is some of the plan here, as Louisiana Tech running back Tyre Shelton having a productive night would work well with a Bulldogs victory. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing the under to go along with an over bet on Shelton’s rushing quota. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Louisiana Tech ML (+188)
Louisiana Tech is a modest 3-3 overall, but it is 2-0 in conference and hopes to extend that perfect mark against the Western Kentucky (3-2, 1-0). The Hilltoppers use an air-raid offense with the highest pass rate in the nation. However, they actually aren’t very efficient through the air. They are outside the top 65 in pass-play PPA, success rate and explosiveness despite their frequency throwing the ball — which is a cause for concern against this Louisiana Tech defense. The Bulldogs rank in the top 3 in opposing pass-play PPA and success rate. In fact, 4 members of the secondary are in the top 10 of CUSA in reception rate allowed per PFF; Keyshawn Paul, Jhamal Shelby Jr., Willie Roberts and Michael Richard all allow less than 37 percent of opposing passes to be caught. WKU averaged just 6.9 yards per pass at Troy and 5.2 at Ohio State. Louisiana Tech has yet to yield more than an average of 8 yards per pass at home. The Bulldogs could be without Paul against WKU, but even if that’s the case they have more than enough in the secondary to slow down the Hilltoppers’ passing attack. Don’t be surprised if Louisiana Tech pulls off the outright upset.
Under 60.5 (-110)
There will probably be plenty of offense in this game, which is why the total is set above 60. It looks to me like too big of a number. That’s because the majority of that offense will likely be generated via the run – at least relative to WKU’s normally lofty passing standards. Such running would keep the clock moving and shorten the game, thus reducing the overall number of points. In addition to Louisiana Tech’s pass defense being stellar, these are two of the worst run defenses in college football. Combine that with some potentially rainy conditions and each team will probably be inclined to keep the ball on the ground for the most part. This play also correlates nicely with Louisiana Tech ML. In their 3 wins this season, the Bulldogs have allowed just 16 points per game.
Tyre Shelton over 51.5 rushing yards (-114)
A steady dose of the running game would naturally give Shelton every opportunity to rack up his fair share of rushing yards. That is exactly what he has done for the past 2 weeks, with 16 carries for 152 yards and 1 touchdown against North Texas followed by 16 attempts for 104 yards and 1 TD at UTEP’s expense. Meanwhile, fellow running backs Keith Willis Jr. and Charvis Thornton have seen their workloads diminish over the last few games. Shelton certainly doesn’t have the backfield all to himself, but the trend is encouraging. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky allows more than 205 rushing yards per game — ranking it in the bottom 10 nationally in that department. I see Shelton soaring over this modest 51.5 number.
