Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 8 of the college football season is behind us, and it certainly lived up to the hype and expectations, particularly with Georgia knocking off Texas in primetime to shake up the SEC title race. We’ve got another exciting slate on tap this week, featuring a number of massive games in the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and the Group of 5. With that said, it’s time to dive into Saturday’s CFB Week 9 slate with my weekly best bets column. It’s been tough sledding this season, but I’m still very confident in my process at the moment, so let’s hope that finally translates into getting a 3-0 card this week.
We’ve got high profile matchups in the Big Ten to headline this week’s crop of best bets, along with a game a bit further down the board that I see value on, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for this Week 9 schedule of games on Saturday.
Oregon Ducks -21 over Illinois Fighting Illini (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
One of the showcase games in the Big Ten this week features a top 20 matchup in Eugene, as the Illinois Fighting Illini are set to take on the newly minted #1 ranked Oregon Ducks on Saturday. I’ve had a pretty good handle on this Oregon team all season long, and the Ducks steady ascent since escaping with a win over Boise State in Week 2 has been something to behold. In fact, Oregon’s record against the number this season would realistically look a lot better (5-2 ATS instead of 3-4) if the Ducks didn’t intentionally take their foot off the gas in the second halves of games against UCLA and Michigan State, allowing those teams to cover the number with scoring drives late in the 4th quarter. However, given that this is a matchup between ranked teams and the college football world will have its eyes on Autzen Stadium once again, I don’t think Dan Lanning’s team will be so quick to take its foot off that throttle in this one.
Just how good is this Illinois team? The true answer remains unclear to me, especially when diving into the metrics and schedule. The Illini are 69th in yards per play margin (-0.42 yards per play in Big Ten play), 114th in success rate allowed on defense and 124th in defensive line yards (Game On Paper). None of those numbers inspire confidence in me that the Illini will be able to generate stops with any sort of consistency, and that spells trouble against an Oregon offense that is a top 10 unit in the nation, averaging 7 yards per play in the Big Ten and sitting inside the top 10 in EPA margin, success rate and Early Downs EPA (College Football Insiders).
Dillon Gabriel is playing some of his best football of the season in recent weeks, Jordan James is running well behind an offensive line that is firing on all cylinders and the Ducks dynamic duo of Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart have generated consistent explosiveness downfield, which was previously missing prior to the game against Ohio State. Therefore, while the Illini have certainly thrived in the underdog role this season, I think the hype train has gone much too far. As long as we’re getting Oregon at three touchdowns or better, I’ll grab the Ducks to win by margin in a hype spot against an overvalued conference opponent.
Read our full Illinois vs Oregon prediction
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Wisconsin Badgers 1st Half under 24.5 (-122)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 24.
Through the first two months of the campaign, it looks like this Penn State program is well on its way to qualifying for the College Football Playoff. With that said, the next couple of weeks will be the biggest tests for this Penn State team, as the Nittany Lions head west to take on Wisconsin this week, followed by a date with Ohio State at home next week.
In the offseason, the Nittany Lions changed their approach on offense by hiring Andy Kotelnicki away from Kansas, and while that move has already yielded great results on a down-to-down basis (3rd in success rate, 11th in EPA per play) the explosive plays have not been there for most of the campaign, particularly on the ground. Penn State is just 117th in explosive rushes this season, but the Nittany Lions have still been very successful at making their layups and stringing together methodical drives down the field. Drew Allar looks exceedingly comfortable within Kotelnicki’s offense, and he’s been confident and efficient (11 TDs, 4 INT, 70.5% completion) in his second season as the starting quarterback. However, this is still an offense that is outside the top 100 nationally in seconds per play and should be looking to run the ball against a Wisconsin defense that is 81st in rushing success rate allowed. With Ohio State on deck, this is a good spot for Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen to get going out of the backfield, which points me in the direction of a lower-scoring start in Madison.
On defense, the Nittany Lions haven’t quite been as elite as they were a season ago, but this is still an excellent unit that should be in a great position to succeed against a Wisconsin offense that likely won’t be able to run the ball very effectively against a top 10 rush defense. While I’ve been impressed with Wisconsin’s offense as the Badgers have adapted to life without Tyler Van Dyke in recent weeks, this Penn State defense is an entirely different animal. I expect both teams to start out a bit slow in a big primetime spot at Camp Randall, so let’s target the first half under while it’s still over the key number of 24.
Read our full Penn State vs Wisconsin prediction
UCF Knights ML over BYU Cougars (-120)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
At some point, this BYU team is going to come back to earth, and I’m banking on it happening this week in a brutal scheduling spot. The Cougars are fresh off another miraculous victory at home against Oklahoma State in yet another game that they had no business winning, even against a banged up Ollie Gordon and the Cowboys’ backup quarterback. Now, with the massive Holy War rivalry game on deck against Utah at Rice-Eccles Stadium, BYU will now travel across the country to Orlando for a date with a UCF Knights team that is quietly trending in the right direction, despite suffering a heartbreaking loss to Iowa State in Ames a week ago.
Despite the fact that the optics of the matchup (a top 15 ranked team playing a team that’s lost 4 straight games) would seemingly favor BYU, there’s a reason that the line has moved four points in UCF’s favor since the open, even with over 75% of public bets and 90% of the handle siding with the undefeated Cougars. The reverse line movement not only reflects the negative market sentiment on BYU, but it’s a product of this game being a bad matchup for the Cougars as well. After all, UCF ranks in the top 5 in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate, while averaging over 280 yards per game on the ground. Just last week, Oklahoma State tallied 269 rushing yards against BYU, and that was a much weaker rushing attack going on the road to play in Provo at night. Furthermore, UCF has historically thrived in this spot at the Bounce House, where the Knights are 9-3 against the number at home against ranked opponents, including a 7-0 ATS record when favored by single digits. All things considered, this Knights team should get back in the win column and pull off the “upset” over this overrated BYU team.
Read our full BYU vs UCF prediction
