Sam Avellone
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Kicking off on ABC at 7:30 pm ET under the lights of Kyle Field in College Station, the battle between the LSU Tigers and the Texas A&M Aggies is the marquee matchup of Week 9. LSU and Texas A&M are the only remaining undefeated teams in SEC play, but only 1 will survive the weekend with an unblemished record.
We at Pickswise love to target these primetime matchups for same game parlays, and this week is no different. I’ve assembled my favorite picks in this SEC showdown into a LSU vs Texas A&M same game parlay, and will briefly analyze each leg for you here. Make sure you check out our college football picks and predictions for all of Week 9’s biggest matchups ahead of this weekend.
Kyren Lacy (LSU) over 5.5 receptions (-105)
Conner Weigman (TAMU) over 0.5 interceptions thrown (-105)
LSU Tigers ML over Texas A&M Aggies (-105)
LSU vs Texas A&M same game parlay odds: +575
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing
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Kyren Lacy (LSU) over 5.5 receptions (-105)
With top 30 marks in pass PPA and success rate outside of garbage time since Week 4, the Tigers have been highly efficient through the air recently. They also boast a top 10 pass rate in that span of time, which means LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is going to be relied upon early and often. He should be able to exploit the weakness of Texas A&M’s defense, its secondary, and Kyren Lacy figures to be the primary beneficiary as the team leader in targets and receiving touchdowns.
This is a matchup Lacy should be able to exploit given his speed and his team-leading 15.6-yard average depth of target. The Aggies are 14th in coverage grade out of 16 SEC teams per PFF, ranking outside the top 50 in opposing pass PPA and outside the top 100 in opposing pass explosiveness in the last 5 weeks. Lacy is heavily targeted every week and is always on the field. He is 2nd among SEC wide receivers in pass-play snaps, having been targeted at least 7 times in every game and at least 9 times in 5 of LSU’s 7 games. With fellow LSU wide receiver CJ Daniels questionable with a knee injury, Lacy’s role in the offense may even see a slight boost in this particular matchup.
Don’t forget to take a look at our college football best bets for our most confident selections of the Week 9 slate!
Conner Weigman (TAMU) over 0.5 interceptions thrown (-105)
Conner Weigman has thrown only 4 interceptions this season, but he has 7 turnover-worthy plays and leads the SEC in turnover-worthy play percentage due to playing only 4 games to this point. Last week, against a Mississippi State defense that ranks 122nd in havoc generated since Week 4, Weigman had 4 turnover-worth plays – 2 of which were intercepted. That does not bode well for him or the Aggie offense this week against an LSU defense that is 7th nationally in havoc generated outside of garbage time since the middle of September. The Tiger defense has only corralled 4 total interceptions this season, but it has picked off opposing quarterbacks in 2 consecutive games. In fact, the Tigers have recorded an interception against 4 of the 5 power conference opponents they have played to this point – including all 3 SEC foes.
LSU’s defense is 2nd in rush PPA and 7th in rush success rate over the last 5 weeks, so the Aggie run game may not find much success against the Tiger front. An inefficient rushing performance should lead to an uptick in Weigman pass attempts, especially if Texas A&M is playing from behind. With more Weigman pass attempts comes more opportunities to throw a pick, making the -105 odds on this prop very appealing.
LSU Tigers ML over Texas A&M Aggies (-105)
LSU and Texas A&M have been good defensively in recent weeks, so this game will likely come down to which offense executes more consistently and efficiently throughout. I trust that to be LSU given the advantages the Tigers have at the quarterback position as well as across the offensive line. Nussmeier is top 7 among power conference quarterbacks in dropbacks and pass attempts this season, yet he has been sacked just 1 time and carries a 2.2% turnover-worthy play rate – which is top 20 among qualified power conference quarterbacks. Against a Texas A&M defense that just allowed Mississippi State freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren to throw for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns last week, Nussmeier should be able to apply a good bit of pressure to Texas A&M’s offense by leading the Tigers on multiple scoring drives. I expect the Tigers to jump out to a lead early in this one, and I don’t trust Weigman and the Aggies to be able to climb out of that hole.
