Sam Avellone
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Another massive slate of games is on tap this weekend in the college football landscape. It’s already Week 9 and we’re quickly approaching November, and the stakes continue to rise as we move towards our first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Before we get to Saturday’s main course of games, Friday will treat us to 3 interesting contests. First, Louisville hopes to break out of its slump when it travels to Chestnut Hill to play Boston College. That ACC matchup will be followed by 2 late-night games, 1 of which has playoff implications when Boise State travels to Las Vegas for a battle with UNLV.
Despite the short Friday card, I’ve identified 2 best bets that are worth highlighting this week. We are 4-2 in the last 3 weeks on these Friday best bets, so let’s keep that momentum going – and don’t forget to check out our college football picks for all of Week 9’s biggest matchups.
College football Week 9 Friday best bets
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Louisville Cardinals -7.5 over Boston College Eagles (-105)
It’s hard to trust this Boston College offense. Despite a strength of schedule that ESPN grades outside the top 60, the Eagles have eclipsed 28 points just once this season – a 56-0 win over FCS Duquesne. Furthermore, they average just 21.4 points per game against power conference opponents, and all but 1 of those power conference defenses are outside the top 75 in defensive PPA since Week 4. Louisville, on the other hand, averages more than 33 points per game against FBS opponents despite a strength of schedule that ranks 14th. The Cardinals understandably struggled to score against Notre Dame and SMU, 2 top-10 defenses in the last 5 weeks, but they broke out of their shell last week against Miami with 45 points and almost 450 total yards.
Louisville has a distinct advantage in yards per play margin and offensive PPA coming into this matchup despite having the harder schedule in recent weeks. With an offense that is 118th in PPA and averaging fewer than 3.5 points per scoring opportunity since Week 4, Boston College doesn’t offer much value as an underdog in this matchup. I power rate Louisville as a 9-point favorite despite being on the road in this contest, and I have no reason to disagree with that number given Boston College’s offensive inefficiencies. Give me the Cards in the battle of the ACC birds. Playable to -8.
Read our full Louisville vs Boston College prediction
Boise State Broncos vs UNLV Rebels Over 64 (-110)
Both Boise State and UNLV rely heavily on their ground games offensively. They are both top 35 in rush rate outside of garbage time since Week 4, and I don’t expect that to change in this matchup. Typically, when 2 run-heavy offenses go head-to-head, I gravitate toward betting an Under because of the likelihood of a running clock and a below-average number of possessions. However, I think this matchup will be a little bit different, as the Broncos and the Rebels are 2 of the most explosive rushing units in all of college football – especially of late. The Broncos are 11th nationally in rush explosiveness since Week 4, while the Rebels are 23rd. That is notable because neither defense has been particularly effective in stopping the run. Boise State and UNLV are both 60th or worst in opposing rush PPA over the last 5 weeks, and both defenses have failed to contain explosive runs in that time. For reference, the Rebels are 112th in opposing rush explosiveness since Week 4, while the Broncos are 132nd. That is music to the ears of Ashton Jeanty, Hajj-Malik Williams and Jai’den Thomas.
Boise State and UNLV are top 12 in scoring against FBS opponents this season, averaging 38.8 and 45 points per game, respectively. That scoring success stems from their ability to finish drives consistently and efficiently. The Broncos and the Rebels have scored an average of at least 5 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line since Week 4, and their red-zone success has been equally as strong – scoring points on more than 88% of their red-zone trips. Neither offense figures to meet much resistance either, as Boise State and UNLV yield touchdowns on more than 78% of opposing red zone trips. Playable to 65.
Read our full Boise State vs UNLV prediction
