Sam Avellone
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Straight up wins by East Carolina, Duke, South Carolina, Oklahoma State, and Liberty were some of the more impressive performances from underdogs in Week 8, but it was a relatively tame week across the college football landscape as far as upsets are concerned.
After another 2-1 week, we are back with 3 more underdogs that stand out on the Week 9 college football betting card. Let’s dive right in!
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Week 9 best underdog bets
Odds listed at BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +2.5 (-105) over Syracuse Orange
Notre Dame has a decent situational advantage in this game, as the Fighting Irish are off a dominating performance that resulted in a 44-21 win over UNLV in Week 8. Meanwhile, the Orange are off a heart-breaking loss on the road at Clemson, which resulted in their first loss of the season. Syracuse has been impressive thus far, but I suspect the Orange will start to fall back down to earth as we approach the last month of the college football regular season. Despite Syracuse’s valiant effort at Clemson, the score makes the game appear closer than it actually felt. The Orange were out-gained 450-291 and benefited greatly from a +3 turnover margin thanks to DJ Uiagalelei’s 2 interceptions and a red zone fumble that Syracuse returned for a touchdown. Furthermore, the Orange did not score a single point after halftime.
Notre Dame is going to want to control the ball with its ground game. The running back group is deep with 3 players that have 70 or more carries, and they run behind an offensive line that ranks 10th in stuff rate, 17th in average line yards per carry, and 25th in opportunity rate. Just like last week, the Orange might struggle to stop the run game, as their defensive line ranks outside the top 100 in the 3 aforementioned metrics. Syracuse also lacks an efficient passing game and has an offensive line that ranks outside the top 100 in sack rate – so the Orange may not be able to mount a comeback if they face any sort of substantial deficit in this game. For what it is worth, the Irish rank 16th in passing downs sack rate.
The Irish have played well away from home this year. Considering Syracuse is a ranked opponent, I do not suspect Notre Dame will be looking ahead to its matchup with Clemson next week. I like the Irish outright, but am happy to take the extra insurance with the spread.
Be sure to check out our full Notre Dame vs Syracuse predictions
Kentucky Wildcats +12.5 (-105) over Tennessee Volunteers
In a division rivalry that has been dominated by Tennessee historically, Kentucky has been very competitive against the Volunteers in recent years. The Wildcats thrashed the Volunteers in Knoxville in 2020, but the Volunteers got revenge last year in a 45-42 win in Lexington. Looking at their upcoming matchup, the Wildcats seem to be in a good spot coming off a bye week. Their full attention will be on the Volunteers, but will the Wildcats have the Volunteers’s undivided attention? Tennessee has a road date with the #1 team in the country next week, the undefeated defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs, so this could be somewhat of a lookahead spot for the Volunteers.
I am not sure the Wildcats will be able to win the game outright, but I do believe they have the ability to keep the game close. Kentucky has one of the better passing offenses in the country behind future NFL quarterback Will Levis. The matchup against Tennessee’s defense is a good one for Levis and the Wildcats, as Levis ranks 7th in passing efficiency while the Volunteers rank 107th in pass coverage per PFF and 114th in EPA per pass according to CFBGraphs. Because of the inefficiencies in the Tennessee secondary, the Volunteers may struggle to pull away from the Wildcats. Not to mention a Kentucky defense that ranks 2nd in the SEC in yards allowed and points allowed.
Be sure to check out our full Kentucky vs Tennessee predictions
Texas A&M Aggies +2 (-110) over Ole Miss Rebels
After 3 straight road losses with a bye week mixed in, Texas A&M returns home to College Station for the first time in a month. In their most recent loss, the Aggies allowed South Carolina to return the opening kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown and get out to a 17-3 lead after the first quarter. However, they fought back respectably by forcing 2 turnovers and out-gaining the Gamecocks 398-286. They fell just short of the win, but there may be some momentum on the Aggies’s side coming into their contest with the Rebels. With a bye week on deck, this is the 9th straight game for the Rebels – who were visibly fatigued against LSU in the second half last week. Now, they have to travel on the road for the second straight week to play Texas A&M under the lights in front of one of the most passionate fan bases in all of college football.
The stats would point to taking Ole Miss in this matchup, but this will be an incredibly tough spot for them – especially when you consider how many of their key players are battling injuries. Give me the Aggies at home to keep this one close.
Read our CFB Week 9 best bets!
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
