Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 7 was another wild one in college football, as we saw more upsets and a ton of nail-biting thrillers throughout the weekend. This week’s schedule promises to be no different, with a number of intriguing contests on the schedule.
Saturday’s slate could be the best of the season thus far and offers a ton of compelling matchups. There is value to be had across the board, but we’re sticking with Power 5 games this week. Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Saturday’s action.
South Carolina ML (+140)
Purdue ML (+110)
Kansas State ML (+140)
Parlay odds: +1109
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay we are going with three underdogs on the money line. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Get our college football picks for all of the big Week 8 matchups!
South Carolina ML (+140) over Texas A&M
While Texas A&M’s defense has been solid all season long, the same can’t be said for its offense. The Aggies haven’t had a consistent presence at quarterback, and that has reared its ugly head throughout the campaign. This is an offense that will likely have serious trouble against a South Carolina team that is still undervalued in the market. I was committed to fading the Gamecocks early on due to their injuries on defense, but this defense has gotten much healthier of late — which led to an outright victory over Kentucky in Lexington. That success should continue against an Aggies team without its best offensive player this week in Ainias Smith.
This Texas A&M offense struggled enough with Haynes King and Max Johnson at quarterback and neither one of them may get the start this week due to injury concerns. But regardless of who lines up under center, the Gamecocks’ defense is 31st against the pass — which will make it hard for the Aggies to move the ball. And while Spencer Rattler has been inconsistent at quarterback for South Carolina, this is a team that ranks inside the top 30 in EPA per rush and rushing success rate. With Ole Miss on deck for Texas A&M, the Aggies could get caught by South Carolina in what should be a raucous Williams-Bryce Stadium.
Check out our full Texas A&M vs South Carolina predictions
Purdue ML (+110) over Wisconsin
Purdue hasn’t beaten Wisconsin in some time, but this is a rare case in which the Boilermakers should be favored in this matchup. After all, they have the better quarterback and the much better offense of these teams. Purdue is 30th in the nation in offensive success rate and also inside the top 30 in passing and rushing success rate. Veteran quarterback Aidan O’Connell will be going up against a poor Badgers pass defense, so he should feel comfortable throwing in this one. The Boilermakers have been strong on early downs and I expect them to stay ahead of the chains by throwing the ball instead of testing Wisconsin’s run defense.
In contrast, the Badgers’ offense is a serious concern. Graham Mertz is still inconsistent and running back Braelon Allen could be contained by a Purdue defense that ranks 19th in EPA per rush. Purdue’s offense has been up and down, while the Badgers have struggled to move the ball through the air this season. If Wisconsin falls behind, Purdue will likely force Mertz to win the game with his arm. I’ll gladly take the Boilermakers as short underdogs.
Check out our full Purdue vs Wisconsin predictions
Kansas State ML (+140) over TCU
The Horned Frogs are coming off a brutal stretch of games against Oklahoma, Kansas and Oklahoma State, all coming without a bye week to recharge. Despite picking up wins in each game, this team has to be mentally and physically exhausted at this point. Against a physical Kansas State team, I expect fatigue to be a key factor in this game, as well. The Wildcats happen to be rested and recharged following a much-needed bye week, and I expect head coach Chris Klieman’s bunch to be ready for this matchup.
This is the exact type of team that can take advantage of TCU’s issues on defense, while also controlling the clock. Kansas State’s offense flows through the tandem of Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn, and those 2 have been a nightmare for opposing defenses. Through 6 games, the Wildcats are a top 40 offense in EPA per rush, including putting up over 300 yards on the ground in victories over Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Look for Kansas State to feed off its success in the trenches on Saturday.
While this TCU offense is explosive, the Wildcats’ defense is very good — ranking 16th in EPA per play and 8th in opponent EPA per pass. Given the awful situational spot for TCU, this line should probably be under a field goal in my estimation. Therefore, I think we’re getting a good price on the money line for Kansas State.
Be sure to get our college football Week 8 best bets – we have gone 11-6-1 over the past 6 weeks!
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