Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 7 of the college football season is in the rearview mirror, and it certainly lived up to the massive hype and expectations, particularly in that Big Ten instant classic out in Eugene, Oregon. We’ve got another mammoth slate on tap this week, featuring a number of massive games in the Big Ten and SEC. With that said, it’s time to dive into Saturday’s CFB Week 8 slate with my weekly best bets column. We’ve gotten back on track over the last couple of weeks, so let’s hope that momentum translates into finally get a 3-0 card this week.
We’ve got high profile matchups between the SEC and ACC to headline this week’s crop of best bets, along with a game a bit further down the board that I see value on, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for this Week 8 schedule of games on Saturday.
Arkansas Razorbacks +3 vs LSU Tigers (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
I’ve been high on this Arkansas team for the majority of this season, and the Hogs have a tremendous situational spot on their hands this week. Sam Pittman’s team is coming off a bye and will get to host an LSU team that just picked up one of its best wins in the Brian Kelly era with an improbable overtime victory over Ole Miss in Death Valley last week. However, once you dig into the box score a bit and parse through the numbers, it’s clear that LSU probably shouldn’t have won this game and Ole Miss really gave away a much-needed victory on the road. In fact, out of all of the games last weekend, this game featured the biggest net success rate discrepancy for a team that ultimately lost. That indicates that LSU’s offense has issues (67th in rushing success rate, 47th in points per quality possession), despite the talent that the Tigers have at the skill positions, along with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
On the other side, this Arkansas team could easily be 6-0 on the season, having blown late leads in games against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M in September. Arkansas’ offense features a rock solid unit on the ground (25th in EPA per rush, 28th in rushing success rate), and quarterback Taylen Green has proven to be a dual threat weapon that opposing defenses in the SEC have struggled with. What’s even more encouraging is that the Hogs are playing some of their best football of the season defensively, especially coming off a performance against Tennessee where they held the Vols’ vaunted offense to just 156 passing yards in a massive upset victory over Josh Heupel’s team. The way to beat this Arkansas defense is on the ground, but LSU doesn’t run the ball very well at all, with metrics that signify this rushing attack as being much closer to the national average than what the Tigers’ highly-rated offensive line would suggest. If the Razorbacks are able to get the Tigers in 3rd and long situations, that should allow their talented group of pass rushers to pin their ears back and get after Nussmeier. Let’s take the Hogs to keep this one within a field goal, and potentially even win the game outright.
Read our full LSU vs Arkansas prediction
Miami Hurricanes vs Louisville Cardinals Over 59.5 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Over 60.5
The biggest game in the ACC this weekend features a couple of teams who were expected to be contenders in this league at the start of the season. While Louisville has ran into some trouble in recent weeks, with losses coming to Notre Dame and SMU in consecutive weeks, the Cardinals still have one of the better offenses in this conference and a coach in Jeff Brohm that is no stranger to success as an underdog. For starters, the Cardinals offense is a balanced unit and Tyler Shough should see plenty of success against a Miami secondary that can be had. In fact, the Hurricanes surrendered 6 plays of 20+ yards against Virginia Tech and a whopping 7 plays of 20+ yards and 4 plays of 50+ yards(!) against California just a few weeks ago. There will be explosive plays available to this Louisville offense, and I trust that Brohm can dial up a few haymakers that lead to touchdowns for the Cardinals.
On the other side, this Miami offense is stellar, which should come as no surprise to anyone who followed the massive additions to this roster in the offseason. Quarterback Cam Ward is a Heisman Trophy contender and he leads a Hurricanes passing offense that is 3rd in passing success rate, 4th in EPA per dropback and 6th in Early Downs EPA (College Football Insiders). Ward should hit plenty of explosiveness against a Louisville defense that is 107th in opponent passing success rate and 79th in EPA per pass. Both teams should continue to score throughout this game, and I’d be pretty surprised if Miami took its foot off the gas at any point in the second half given how the last few weeks have gone. Let’s get to the window with the over in this game.
Read our full Miami vs Louisville prediction
Nebraska Cornhuskers +7 vs Indiana Hoosiers (-118)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
I was very high on this Indiana team heading into the season, but the Hoosiers have managed to even surpass my expectations over the first 6 weeks. However, I think we’re reaching the peak of the market on Indiana this week, especially considering the quality of opponent that the Hoosiers have beaten to this point. Nebraska obviously represents a massive step up in class on both sides of the ball, and head coach Matt Rhule is often excellent coming out of the bye week. Rhule is consistently profitable in this situation as well, posting an 35-18-1 (66%) against the spread record as an underdog, including a 19-9 (67.9%) mark on the road. It’s also important to remember that if Illinois doesn’t intercept Dylan Raiola in the end zone toward the end of regulation, this game is probably a battle of unbeatens and this line would be closer to a field goal than what we’re getting with a touchdown.
Led by veteran quarterback Kurtis Rourke and a trio of underrated wide receivers, this Indiana offense has been elite this season, albeit against poor competition. However, this Nebraska defense is a completely different animal, posting a top-35 havoc rate over the past 5 weeks. The Cornhuskers could easily frustrate an Indiana offense that is outside the top 40 in havoc allowed over that span despite a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 100 to this point. Nebraska has also been solid offensively over the past month, as the Cornhuskers are sitting inside the top 35 in points per opportunity and total scoring opportunities. As good as Indiana has been on offense, the Hoosiers’ defense has only 52nd in havoc generated and outside the top 70 in defensive points per opportunity, despite a very easy schedule. All of this points me in the direction of the Cornhuskers being able to put enough points on the board to keep this game within a touchdown, and don’t be surprised if they even win the game outright.
Read our full Nebraska vs Indiana prediction
