Caleb Wilfinger
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While this week doesn’t have a lot of depth to it, the top-end matchups should all be fantastic games. As a whole, the week still offers plenty of compelling matchups that will play a part in bowl qualification and conference title races. We’ll be targeting one of those games in my mega parlay, along with an important matchup in the Big 12 and what could be a wild one in the SEC. No digging in the trash this week!
You can read all our college football predictions here, but without any further ado, here’s my 3-leg parlay with a mega payout of +993 odds. Let’s take a look at each of the legs.
Alabama -8.5 (-110)
Kansas State -5.5 (-114)
Auburn ML (+202)
NCAAF parlay odds: +993
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Alabama Crimson Tide -8.5 over Tennessee Volunteers (-110)
This game profiles similarly to when Alabama was a touchdown favorite at home against Ole Miss, where the Crimson Tide won and covered thanks to a dominant defensive effort. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has consistently improved in the 3 weeks since that game, showing his ability to hit the deep ball consistently and open things up for the Alabama run game. And of course, the Crimson Tide remain an elite defensive unit. This is also a massive revenge spot for Alabama after dropping an instant classic to Tennessee on the road a season ago, and if Nick Saban’s television appearances are anything to read into, he has certainly not forgotten about how last year’s meeting went.
The biggest advantage Alabama will have is on the defensive side of the ball, where the Crimson Tide are well-equipped to stop both the run (5th in rushing success rate) and the passing game (9th in passing success rate, 9th in EPA per pass). On top of the fact this is a stout and consistently improving defense, they’ll be going against a Volunteers offense that I’ve believed to be overrated all season based on last season’s performance. Sure, Joe Milton can throw the ball 70 yards with a flick of the wrist, but he’s not shown to be an effective quarterback at any destination thus far, including in Knoxville. Tennessee is 53rd in pass success rate, 65th in EPA per pass and 58th in net points per drive, despite playing a pretty favorable schedule to this point. Those are poor numbers for a Josh Heupel offense that is used to executing at a high level and scoring efficiently. I would look for Saban’s defense to make life miserable for Milton and this struggling Volunteers offense on Saturday.
Check out our full Tennessee vs Alabama predictions
Kansas State Wildcats -5.5 over TCU Horned Frogs (-114)
Both of Kansas State’s losses this season could have easily been wins had one or two plays gone the other way, and I bet that Chris Klieman will have his team extremely prepared for a matchup at home against TCU. The Wildcats are a dominant rushing team once again, led by Cooper Bibee and an experienced offensive line. Furthermore, the combination of Will Howard and freshman standout Avery Johnson at quarterback was absolutely dominant against Texas Tech’s defense last weekend, en route to 5 rushing touchdowns from the Wildcats. I’d expect Collin Klien to emphasize the ground game against a TCU defense that allowed over 200 rushing yards to a similar West Virginia rushing attack earlier this season. It also helps that Kansas State’s defense is one of the best in the nation against the run, as it should force new TCU quarterback Josh Hoover to beat them through the air on crucial downs. Let’s take the Wildcats to win decisively here.
Lock in our expert’s NCAAF Week 8 best bets
Auburn Tigers ML over Ole Miss Rebels (+202)
For our final leg of this mega parlay, we’re going with the Auburn Tigers on the money line. Historically, Auburn has been quite a difficult matchup for Ole Miss, as the Tigers are 18-5 straight up against the Rebels since 2000. Additionally, the Rebels have been very bad following their bye week since 2013, as Ole Miss has lost 9 of 12 games following a bye and is winless in 6 road games after being idle. The home-field advantage at Jordan-Hare Stadium is also legit, especially at night. Weird stuff happens at Jordan-Hare, as the Tigers were tied at the half against Georgia a few weeks ago and managed to keep the game within one score at all times. The Tigers boast a top-20 defense according to BCFToys, plus they’ve got the coaching edge with Hugh Freeze on the sideline. Let’s fade Ole Miss in what should be a very hostile environment on Saturday.
Read our full Auburn vs Ole Miss predictions
