Caleb Wilfinger
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I nearly hit my 3-leg mega parlay for last Saturday’s games, but ultimately fell one leg short (thanks, UMass). Now, we head into Week 8, where we’ll see plenty of compelling matchups that will play a part in bowl qualification and conference title races. However, these glamorous games are not what we’re going to be targeting on Tuesday’s card. No, instead we’ll be looking at a few games in Conference USA and the Sun Belt for my 3-leg parlay with a mega payout of +946 odds.
This card isn’t the prettiest on paper, but all winning wagers pay out the same! Without any further ado, Let’s take a look at each of the legs.
Liberty to win by 1-13 points (+180)
Southern Miss vs South Alabama under 53.5 (-115)
Western Kentucky over 34.5 points (+100)
NCAAF Parlay Odds: +946
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Liberty Flames to win by 1-13 points over Middle Tennessee (+180)
This is a pretty tough spot for the Blue Raiders, and I don’t think Middle Tennessee will be able to slow down Kaidon Slater and the Jamey Chadwell offense on the road all that much. Liberty should run the ball well, as the Flames are extremely efficient on standard downs. Salter is also efficient in play-action, so the Flames are able to beat opponents over the top with explosive pass plays, as Salter’s 15.8 yard ADOT that ranks 2nd in the nation among all qualified quarterbacks. Salter is even a good runner, accumulating over 330 rush yards and 6 touchdowns to ago along with what he provides with his arm.
Given that Liberty has considerable advantages on both sides of the ball, I definitely think the Flames should win this midweek matchup. However, we’ve seen the Flames struggle as large favorites at home before, most recently as a massive 18-point favorite against Sam Houston State. That game went right down to the wire and while I don’t expect a similar result tonight, I do like the value that we’re getting with this +180 price point.
Check out our full Middle Tennessee vs Liberty predictions
Southern Miss vs South Alabama Under 53.5 (-115)
This is a complete mismatch on paper, with South Alabama having serious aspirations of winning the Sun Belt while Southern Miss has been riddled with injuries on offense and a complete disaster at quarterback to this point. Therefore, I like the number that we’re getting on the under in this weeknight clash. The Jaguars defense is really strong against the rush, which is all Southern Miss does this season (44th in EPA per rush per CFB-Graphs). Conversely, the Golden Eagles defense has been a major issue against strong offenses this season, ranking 122nd in opponent EPA per pass and 129th in EPA per rush. However, I don’t expect South Alabama to show much with massive games against Louisiana and Troy on deck. Let’s back a low-scoring game in this one.
Western Kentucky team total over 34.5 points (+100)
For our final leg of this mega parlay, we’re going with a Western Kentucky team total of over 34.5 against Jacksonville State. This Hilltoppers’ offense is a ton of fun to watch, with senior quarterback Austin Reed throwing the ball around to a handful of very talented wide receivers who have no trouble making defensive backs miss in the open field. Western Kentucky is currently in the top 40 in EPA per pass on offense, and those numbers factor in games against a couple of excellent defenses in Ohio State and Troy earlier in the season. It’s safe to say that Jacksonville State is a major step down from those programs, with the Gamecocks having allowed 30 points to Middle Tennessee and 28 points to an awful offense in Sam Houston State. The Hilltoppers should score early and often.
Don’t miss any of our NCAAF Week 8 predictions
